Weekly Trend Report
- 22nd Sep 2025
Week Gone By
The domestic equity benchmarks saw significant gains this week, with declines occurring only on Monday and Friday, while the other three days closed in positive territory. The market was buoyed by optimism around India-U.S. trade talks and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 0.25% interest rate cut. Investor confidence was also supported by recent GST reforms and India’s return to positive wholesale inflation, which eased deflation concerns. In the week ended on Friday, 19 September 2025, The Nifty 50 index advanced 213.05 points or 0.85% to settle at 25,327.05. On the economic front, India’s inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) index rose to 0.52% in August 2025, marking a return to positive territory after two consecutive months of deflation. On the global front, The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4%–4.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the decision as a “risk management cut” rather than a response to underlying economic weakness.
Week Ahead
The Indian equities market is likely to see a cautiously positive week ahead, with the Nifty maintaining support above important moving averages. A key resistance level to watch is around 25,500, and a strong breakout beyond this level could open the path to retesting recent highs near 25,669. On the downside, immediate support lies near 25,000, which should act as a solid floor for the index. Market momentum is supported by the recent US Federal Reserve rate cut, improving earnings expectations, and progress in India-US trade negotiations. However, volatility may persist amid continued foreign fund movements, upcoming IPOs, and global cues. A prudent approach would be to look for buying opportunities on dips, while staying alert to any sudden market shifts. The coming week holds several key economic releases for India that could influence market sentiment.
Technical Overview
- Nifty has managed to scale above the psychological 25,000 mark, but sustaining here is the real test. Buyers have shown strength on dips, yet sellers are active near resistance zones. Holding above 25,500 will be key to extending the upmove.
- The index remains inside a rising channel, reflecting an ongoing short-term bullish structure.
- However, repeated tests near resistance highlight that momentum is slowing slightly. A clean break above 25,500 would reaffirm strength, while weakness below key supports could signal a pause.
- Immediate support is now seen at 25,200. If Nifty slips below this, momentum will fade and could trigger profit booking.
- Deeper supports are placed around 24,800–24,500, where stronger demand is expected to step in.
- On the upside, 25,500 is the hurdle to watch. Sustaining above this opens the way towards 25,800–26,000. If the index fails here, sellers could push it into a sideways-to-corrective phase.\
- The index is trading comfortably above its 20-day EMA, showing the near-term bias is still positive. A close below the 20-day EMA, however, could invite weakness and accelerate profit booking.
- Volumes have picked up during upswings, showing genuine buying interest. But the recent sessions also reflect some distribution near the top, suggesting a tug of war between bulls and bears at higher levels.
- The RSI stands around 63, indicating healthy but not overbought momentum. However, if the index fails to hold 25,500 and RSI starts slipping, it would confirm fading strength.
- The ADX at 21 shows the trend is still gaining traction. With +DI holding above –DI, bulls remain in control. A drop below 18 on ADX would, however, confirm weakening momentum.
- The MACD remains in the green, supporting a bullish stance. But the histogram bars show signs of flattening, which is an early hint that momentum may cool off if price fails to clear resistance zones.
- Conclusion:
Nifty requires to hold above 25,500 to extend the upside towards 25,800–26,000. If it fails to sustain these levels, some profit booking is likely. On the downside, 25,200 is the first support, and a break below this would mean loss of momentum, exposing the index to 24,800–24,500 levels. Overall, bias stays positive as long as 25,200 is protected, but strength only builds if 25,500 is conquered convincingly.
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