Newsletter: 17th January 2025

Indus Towers: Investment Opportunity

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US market reversed its earlier gains and closed in the red as big tech stocks weighed on the overall performance. Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed. Global markets opened on a cautious note as investors await key economic data from China, which is December industrial output and retail sales figures, along with fourth-quarter GDP data. Gift Nifty indicates a weak start for the Indian markets which are expected to react to the mixed global cues and Q3 earnings on the last day of the week. On the stock front, BPCL will remain in focus as the company has signed a loan agreement worth Rs 31,802 crore with a consortium of lenders led by the State Bank of India. The funds will be used to finance planned projects at Bina.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –76,594.28 (-0.58%)

Nifty 50 – 23,258.00 (-0.23%)

Bank Nifty – 48,666.00 (-1.24%)

Dow Jones – 43,230.58 (0.18%)

Nasdaq – 19,349.34 (-0.83%)

FTSE – 8,391.90 (1.08%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,359.20 (-0.55%)

Hang Seng – 19,556.91 (0.57%)

Sector: Telecom

Indus Tower: 62% Upside, Outperform List

CLSA, a Hong Kong-based brokerage, has added Indus Towers Ltd. to its ‘high conviction’ list, signaling strong confidence in the stock’s potential. The firm raised its rating on the company, setting a target price of Rs 575 per share, which suggests a 62% upside from its current price of Rs 358.6. This positive outlook comes after the company received Rs 1,900 crore from Vodafone Idea, helping reduce overdue payments by over 70%. CLSA believes this improves the company’s financial position, with a solid outlook for 4G/5G investments. The company is expected to see a 10% growth in EBITDA, strong cash flow, and a 7% free cash flow yield by FY27. Additionally, there is optimism about the return of dividends in FY25, as Vodafone Idea’s financial health improves. Indus Towers’ stock has risen 70% over the past year, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50 index.

Why it Matters:

CLSA’s bullish outlook on Indus Towers signals strong potential for significant stock growth, with a 62% upside. The company’s improved financials, driven by reduced dues from Vodafone Idea, support continued investment and cash flow growth. This adds confidence to Indus Towers’ future profitability and dividend prospects.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BPCL – 273.80 (2.59%)

HINDALCO – 616.20 (2.26%)

REILANCE – 1293.15 (2.11%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

AXISBANK – 985.05 (-5.10%)

INFY – 1830.25 (-5.09%)

ICICIBANK– 1229.30 (-1.59%)

Sector: IT

Infosys Shares Drop 6% Amid Uncertainty

Infosys shares fell 6% on January 17, following a nearly 6% drop in its American Depository Receipts (ADRs) on the NYSE. While the company’s Q3 results exceeded expectations, it revised its revenue growth forecast for FY25 to 4.5-5%, signaling potential weakness in Q4. Analysts raised concerns about possible seasonal declines, with BoFA Securities predicting a 1% drop in Q4 revenue. The company also faces uncertainty over the impact of wage hikes, which could affect margins in Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26. Despite these concerns, Infosys reported a 4.6% rise in net profit for Q3, a slight increase in revenue, and strong deal wins, including a $2.5 billion contract. Additionally, there was optimism about increased spending in key sectors like financial services in Europe and retail in the US. Investors remain cautious due to the Q4 forecast and wage hike uncertainty, impacting the stock’s performance.

Why it Matters:

Infosys’ weak Q4 outlook and wage hike uncertainty have caused concerns, leading to a 6% drop in shares. Despite strong Q3 results and deal wins, analysts are cautious about potential seasonal revenue declines. The market is closely watching margin impacts from upcoming wage hikes.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, mainly driven by strong economic data from China, including better-than-expected GDP growth and industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2024. China’s stock markets, like the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite, gained 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Retail sales in December also saw a strong increase, helping boost investor sentiment. Other Asian markets, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, followed suit with gains. However, Japanese stocks, including the Nikkei 225, dropped over 1% due to concerns about a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week. The upcoming interest rate decision in Japan is closely watched, with some expecting a hike if economic conditions continue to improve. Regional markets were cautious ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, given his trade tariff threats, which may lead to a trade war with China. India’s Nifty 50 and South Korea’s KOSPI both saw slight declines.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,500

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 23,325 (Pivot)

Support – 23,258, 23,205, 23,139

Resistance – 23,378, 23,444, 23,497

Bank Nifty – 49,258 (Pivot)

Support – 49,058, 48,838, 48,637

Resistance – 49,478, 49,679, 49,889

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest Brand Ad

Newsletter: 16th January 2025

CEAT Reports Disappointing Q3

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US market surged on account of easing inflation, which increased the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Asian markets followed these trends and advanced on Thursday. Gift Nifty, trading higher today indicates a positive start for the Indian benchmark indices, in line with the global trend. However, FII remains a net seller in the Indian market on Wednesday. The key highlight of the day will be the Q3 earnings performance of major players like Infosys, Reliance Industries Limited and Axis Bank.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –77,147.95 (0.55%)

Nifty 50 – 23,340.25 (0.55%)

Bank Nifty – 49,244.75 (1.01%)

Dow Jones – 43,306.30 (0.20%)

Nasdaq – 19,510.62 (2.45%)

FTSE – 8,301.13 (1.20%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,577.17 (0.34%)

Hang Seng – 19,460.21 (0.90%)

Sector: Tyres & Rubber

CEAT Q3 Results Disappoint, Shares Plunge

CEAT’s shares dropped by over 7% on January 16 after the company reported a 46.5% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 FY25, falling to Rs 97.1 crore from Rs 181.5 crore in the same quarter last year. Although the company’s revenue grew by 11.4% to Rs 3,299.9 crore, operating profit (EBITDA) dropped by 18.3%, with the margin narrowing from 14.1% to 10.3%. The decline in profit was mainly due to rising raw material costs, although price hikes and cost control efforts helped offset some of the impact. Despite the challenges, the company reported strong growth in the replacement segment and maintained a stable order pipeline. CEAT also plans to invest Rs 400 crore to expand its Butibori plant in Nagpur, which will increase production by 30% by 2027. Shares fell by 6.5% in early trade and have dropped nearly 9% over the past week.

Why it Matters:

CEAT’s profit decline and shrinking margins signal financial stress, impacting investor confidence. Despite revenue growth, rising raw material costs and lower profitability could pressure future performance. The stock’s sharp drop reflects market concern over sustained profitability and growth prospects.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

HDFCLIFE – 644.75 (8.51%)

ADANIENT – 2512.35 (5.20%)

SBILIFE – 1526.70 (3.66%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

HINDUNILVR – 2351.55 (-0.90%)

TATACONSUM – 949.50 (-0.63%)

CIPLA– 1438.10 (-0.63%)

Sector: Life Insurance

HDFC Life Surges 10% on Strong Q3

HDFC Life’s shares surged 10% on January 16 after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 results for the October-December period. Its net profit rose 14% year-on-year to Rs 415 crore, and net premium income grew 10% to Rs 16,771 crore. Key metrics like Annualised Premium Equivalent (APE) and the Value of New Business (VNB) exceeded market expectations, increasing 15.5% and 17.8% respectively. Brokerages remain optimistic, with HSBC and Jefferies both maintaining ‘buy’ ratings and target prices of Rs 750, citing strong margins and new customer acquisition as drivers of future growth. However, CLSA lowered its target price to Rs 690, noting slower growth and uncertainty over regulatory changes. Despite the concerns, HDFC Life’s healthy performance in a challenging environment has led to a strong market reaction, with shares up nearly 10% in early trading.

Why it Matters:

HDFC Life’s strong Q3 results boost investor confidence, driving a 10% share price jump. Key metrics surpassed expectations, signaling healthy growth potential. Brokerages remain bullish, supporting a positive outlook despite regulatory uncertainties.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stocks saw a sharp rise on Thursday, driven by a positive reaction to softer U.S. inflation data. Markets gained after a strong rally in Wall Street, with U.S. futures steady in Asia. The focus now shifts to Japan’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting next week, with possible rate hikes if the economy continues improving. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.4%, but a stronger yen weighed on the index, as it can hurt exporters’ profits. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.4%, boosted by strong job market data. In China, markets were more cautious ahead of key economic data, including GDP and industrial production figures, due on Friday. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.2%, despite the Bank of Korea deciding to hold interest rates steady at 3.00%, against expectations of a cut due to ongoing political unrest. Overall, the market’s optimism was fueled by hopes of slower inflation and potential rate cuts in major economies.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,300

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 23,217.77 (Pivot)

Support – 23,141, 23,070, 22,994

Resistance – 23,289, 23,364, 23,436 

Bank Nifty – 48,785 (Pivot)

Support – 48,488, 48,224, 47,926

Resistance – 49,049, 49,347, 49,610

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest Brand Ad

Newsletter: 15th January 2025

Reliance Earnings: Mixed Outlook

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US markets ended on a mixed note, awaiting inflation data that will clarify the expected path for policy easing that the Federal Reserve will adopt. Asian markets followed this trend and traded on a mixed note. Gift Nifty, trading marginally higher today, indicates a positive start for the Indian benchmark indices. However, the markets will remain under pressure and may follow the global trend due to third-quarter earnings from companies, which will provide a sense of direction for the economy while awaiting the Budget 2025 and the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting next month and continued selling by foreign portfolio investors. On the stock front, Indian Railway Finance Corp. will remain focused as the company has been selected as the lowest bidder to finance Rs 3,167 crore for developing a coal block in Jharkhand. This project is being executed by Patratu Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd., a joint venture between NTPC Ltd. and Jharkhand Bijli Vitran Nigam Ltd.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –76,669.58 (0.22%)

Nifty 50 – 23,199.05 (0.01%)

Bank Nifty – 48,775.50 (0.10%)

Dow Jones – 42,566.28 (0.12%)

Nasdaq – 19,022.53 (-0.34%)

FTSE – 8,201.54 (-0.28%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,494.33 (0.05%)

Hang Seng – 19,264.46 (0.23%)

Sector: Refineries

Reliance Q3 FY25 Profit, Margin Growth

Reliance Industries is set to report its Q3 FY25 results on January 16, with analysts expecting a mixed performance. Strong growth is expected in telecom earnings, refining margins, and moderate retail growth. Net profit is forecasted to rise 6% sequentially to Rs 17,482 crore, while EBITDA is anticipated to grow by 5% to Rs 41,125 crore. Key drivers include improved refining margins, higher digital service tariffs, and a stable performance from Jio, which is expected to show a 17% year-on-year rise in EBITDA. Retail growth is expected from increased consumer activity, though there are some challenges in the B2B segment. However, petrochemical margins are expected to remain under pressure. Analysts will focus on refining margins, Jio’s performance, retail recovery, and future plans for reducing debt and capital spending. Investors will also watch for updates on Jio’s potential IPO and overall market outlook.

Why it Matters:

Reliance Industries’ Q3 results are crucial as they highlight performance in key sectors like telecom, refining, and retail. Strong growth in telecom and refining could boost overall profits, while challenges in petrochemicals and retail provide a mixed outlook. Investor focus will be on margin sustainability, debt reduction, and potential Jio IPO developments.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

NTPC – 322.05 (3.75%)

MARUTI – 12071.00 (2.81%)

POWERGRID – 295.60 (1.84%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

BAJAJFINANCE – 7164.40 (-2.33%)

BAJAJFINSV – 1675.20 (-2.24%)

SHRIRAMFIN– 532.80 (-2.08%)

Sector: Financial Institution

IRFC Shares Rise 4% on Bid Win

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd (IRFC) saw its shares rise 4% to Rs 140.5 on January 15 after the company announced it was the lowest bidder for a Rs 3,167 crore financing project for the development of the Banhardih coal block in Jharkhand. The project, led by Patratu Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd (PVUNL), a joint venture between NTPC and Jharkhand Bijli Vitran Nigam, will ensure a steady coal supply for PVUNL’s operations. IRFC will fund the development, which is still subject to due diligence and final approvals. Additionally, IRFC recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Railway Energy Management Company Ltd (REMCL) to support renewable energy projects for Indian Railways, aiming to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Despite a 15% drop in the last month, IRFC’s share price saw a recovery, reflecting positive market sentiment following these developments.

Why it Matters:

IRFC’s 4% share rise reflects its role as the lowest bidder for a major Rs 3,167 crore coal project, signaling strong business growth. The partnership with PVUNL ensures steady revenue from the Banhardih coal block. Additionally, IRFC’s focus on renewable energy projects aligns with Indian Railways’ sustainability goals, boosting investor confidence.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Most Asian stocks saw small gains on Wednesday, following an overnight rise in U.S. markets, but investors remained cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data. U.S. stock index futures were higher, and market attention was focused on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes rose, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained mostly unchanged. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks showed mixed results, while other Asian markets like Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia saw declines. Investors are also awaiting key economic data from China, including full-year GDP figures, industrial production, and retail sales, which are expected on Friday. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI index rose slightly, with expectations of a rate cut from the Bank of Korea to support the economy. Overall, markets were uncertain, influenced by the Fed’s hawkish stance and political developments in South Korea.

Option Traders Corner

 Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,300

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 23,191 (Pivot)

Support – 23,118, 23,060, 22,987

Resistance – 23,249, 23,322, 23,380

Bank Nifty – 48,657 (Pivot)

Support – 48,307, 47,885, 47,534

Resistance – 49,079, 49,429, 49,851

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest Brand Ad

Newsletter: 14th January 2025

CEO Succession Plan Worries

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US market ended on a mixed note, with the Dow posting a gain while the Nasdaq declined, as investors shifted their focus away from tech stocks, which saw the most significant declines during the session. Following this trend, Asia-Pacific markets also traded mixed. GIFT Nifty is trading on a positive note, indicating a positive start for Indian benchmark indices, which is expected to react to retail inflation data that declined to 5.22% in December, owing to a decline in food inflation, boosting the possibility of an interest rate cut. FPIs remained net sellers on Monday. Investors will focus on the release of December WPI data later today. Furthermore, investors will continue to monitor India’s rupee, which weakened to a record low against the US dollar. On the stock front, BEL will remain in focus as the company has received work orders totalling Rs 561 crore, with major orders including communication equipment, electro-optics, upgrades for the satcom network, radar and fire control systems, spares, services, and more.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex -76,569.84 (0.32%)

Nifty 50 – 23,156.50 (0.31%)

Bank Nifty – 48,555.65 (1.07%)

Dow Jones – 42,298.12 (0.01%)

Nasdaq – 19,087.82 (-0.39%)

FTSE – 8,224.19 (-0.30%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,371.13 (-2.09%)

Hang Seng – 19,141.13 (1.39%)

Sector: Breweries

Macquarie's underperform Call Hits United Spirits

United Spirits’ shares dropped by more than 4% to Rs 1,411 on January 14 after the company announced a leadership change as part of its CEO succession plan. Macquarie analysts gave the stock an “underperform” rating with a target price of Rs 1,175, suggesting a potential 16% decline. Hina Nagarajan, the current CEO, will step down on March 31, 2025, after four years in the role and will take on a new position within the Diageo Group. Praveen Someshwar, who is currently the CEO of HT Media and has a long career at PepsiCo, will take over as CEO starting April 1, 2025. The smoothness of this leadership transition will be closely watched by investors. Over the past week, United Spirits’ shares have fallen by more than 13%, significantly underperforming the Nifty 50 index, which has only dropped by 2%.

Why it Matters:

The leadership change at United Spirits raises uncertainty about its future, which could negatively affect stock performance. Macquarie’s “underperform” rating with a target price of Rs 1,175 suggests further downside potential. This uncertainty, combined with recent share price declines, signals potential risk for investors.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

ADANIENT – 2351.95 (5.70%)

INDUSINDBK – 976.00 (3.64%)

NTPC – 308.75 (3.54%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

HCLTECH – 1810.80 (-8.98%)

TECHM – 1643.80 (-1.50%)

HINDUNILVR– 2421.60 (-1.20%)

Sector: IT

HCLTech Stock Drops 9% on Weak Guidance

HCLTech’s stock dropped more than 9% on January 14 after the company released its Q3 results. While the company met earnings expectations, a small increase in its revenue growth forecast raised concerns about weaker growth in the coming quarter. HCLTech revised its revenue growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 4.5-5%, up from the previous 3.5-5% range, but analysts were disappointed by the forecast’s suggestion of a slower Q4. This was mainly due to a planned reduction in a large telecom deal and delays in some discretionary projects. Despite some positive news, such as higher profit and expanding margins in Q3, the revised guidance pointed to a weaker Q4 exit. Brokerages expressed concern about slower growth in the upcoming quarter, especially since HCLTech had been seeing increased demand in certain areas. As a result, the stock faced a significant decline.

Why it Matters:

HCLTech’s revised growth guidance signals potential weakness in Q4, which disappointed investors. The company’s 9% stock drop reflects concerns about slower growth despite positive Q3 results. This update raises uncertainty for future performance, affecting investor sentiment.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday. Chinese shares surged, with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices rising on reports that Donald Trump’s economic team is considering a gradual increase in U.S. tariffs. The plan could raise tariffs by 2% to 5% each month, aiming to improve negotiations without causing too much inflation. However, Japanese stocks took a hit, with the Nikkei dropping 1.7% as markets adjusted their expectations for fewer U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025 after stronger-than-expected payroll data. Investors are now focused on upcoming key economic data, including China’s GDP, industrial production, and retail sales figures for December. In South Korea, there is speculation about a possible interest rate cut due to political and economic struggles. Overall, Asian markets are under pressure from the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be less aggressive with rate cuts this year, which has impacted investor sentiment across the region.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,350

Bank Nifty – 50,000

 

Nifty 50 – 23,158 (Pivot)

Support – 22,975, 22,864, 22,681

Resistance – 23,268, 23,451, 23,562

 

Bank Nifty – 48,181 (Pivot)

Support – 47,757, 47,473, 47,049

Resistance – 48,465, 48,889, 49,173

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest Brand Ad

Newsletter: 13th January 2025

Waaree's Bold Renewable Move

Aaj Ka Bazaar

All three major US stock market indices ended lower on Friday. In the Asia Pacific region, markets started the week cautiously, with uncertainties over future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following the latest US jobs data. As a result, Indian markets are expected to remain under pressure on Monday, especially with continued selling by foreign institutional investors adding to the cautious mood. On the stock front, Hindustan Unilever will be in focus as the company has set up a new arm called Kwality Wall’s for the planned demerger of its ice cream business.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –76,858.12 (-0.67%)

Nifty 50 – 23,226.70 (-0.70%)

Bank Nifty – 48,441.20 (-0.60%)

Dow Jones – 41,784.53 (-0.37%)

Nasdaq – 19,173.65 (-1.57%)

FTSE – 8,248.49 (-0.86%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,190.40 (0.00%)

Hang Seng – 18,807.68 (-1.36%)

Sector: Electrical Equipment

Waaree Acquires Enel, Stock Surges

Shares of Waaree Energies rose 3% to ₹2,648 on January 13 after the company announced its plan to acquire Enel Green Power India for ₹792 crore. This move marks Waaree’s entry into the renewable energy sector, adding a solar and wind portfolio with a capacity of 640 MWAC (760 MWDC) to its business. The deal includes projects co-owned with partners where Enel holds a majority stake. With this acquisition, Waaree aims to diversify its revenue, grow its independent power producer (IPP) business, and strengthen its position in wind energy. Enel Green Power, a European leader in renewables, has established a strong presence in India. The transaction, expected to close in three months, is subject to regulatory approvals. Waaree, which made a strong stock market debut in October 2024, has seen its share price correct by 20% over the past month, despite operating multiple manufacturing plants across India.

Why it Matters:

This acquisition positions Waaree Energies as a key player in India’s growing renewable energy market, diversifying its revenue streams. By adding a 640 MW operational portfolio, the company strengthens its wind and solar capabilities. It also aligns with India’s push for sustainable energy solutions, enhancing Waaree’s long-term growth prospects.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

INDUSINDBK – 964.85 (2.91%)

AXISBANK – 1054.85 (1.36%)

BRITANNIA – 4977.00 (0.77%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

TRENT – 6406.70 (-2.69%)

M&M – 3016.70 (-2.46%)

APOLLOHOSP– 6883.50 (-2.18%)

Sector: Retail

DMart Falls as Growth Outlook Weakens

Avenue Supermarts, the operator of DMart, reported a modest 4.9% rise in net profit to ₹723.54 crore for Q3 FY24, while revenue grew 17.6% to ₹15,973 crore. However, its EBITDA margin fell to 7.6% from 8.3% last year due to weaker gross margins and higher retail costs. DMart’s shares dropped nearly 6% to ₹3,469.95 after the report. Brokerages lowered price targets, citing rising competition, higher costs, and discounting pressures in the FMCG category as challenges. Morgan Stanley maintained an “underperform” rating, and Nuvama and Motilal Oswal reduced target prices, highlighting margin pressures and stiff competition from quick-commerce players. Meanwhile, DMart announced that Neville Noronha will step down as MD and CEO in January 2026, with Anshul Asawa, an experienced professional from Unilever, set to join. While long-term growth potential remains, near-term challenges are weighing on investor sentiment.

Why it Matters:

DMart’s weaker margins and rising competition signal challenges for its value-focused model in a competitive retail market. The management transition adds uncertainty, impacting investor confidence. Brokerages lowering price targets highlight concerns about near-term growth and profitability.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Most Asian currencies weakened on Monday as the U.S. dollar gained strength, driven by better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, which raised concerns about slower interest rate cuts in 2025. The dollar hit a 24-month high, reflecting expectations of a strong labor market and sticky inflation keeping Federal Reserve rates higher for longer. Regional trading was muted due to a Japanese holiday, but currencies like the yen, yuan, and Indian rupee remained under pressure. Despite positive Chinese trade data, the yuan weakened as traders anticipated more stimulus measures to counteract economic challenges. Other Asian currencies, including the South Korean won and Singapore dollar, saw minor fluctuations, while the Indian rupee steadied after recent record lows. The market is now focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve comments for further interest rate cues.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,550

Bank Nifty – 50,400 

Nifty 50 – 23,457 (Pivot)

Support – 23,318, 23,205, 23,066

Resistance – 23,570, 23,709, 23,822

Bank Nifty – 48,949 (Pivot)

Support – 48,415, 48,097, 47,563

Resistance – 49,267, 49,801, 50,119

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest Brand Ad

Newsletter: 10th January 2025

GTPL's Q3 Profit Plunge

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US markets were closed yesterday to honour ex-president Jimmy Carter. In the Asian markets, the Nikkei opens lower and remains under pressure amidst profit booking after the release of disappointing earnings results the previous day. Hang Seng made a strong start, however the steam fizzled out with the benchmark now trading flat. On the domestic front, GIFT Nifty indicates a flattish start. The key highlight for the day would be the performance of TCS, which would largely drive the direction of its peers during the day.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex -77,682.59 (0.08%)

Nifty 50 – 23,551.90 (0.11%)

Bank Nifty – 49,426.50 (-0.16%)

Dow Jones – 42,515.69 (-0.28%)

Nasdaq – 19,478.88 (-0.06%)

FTSE – 8,319.69 (0.83%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,212.64 (-0.99%)

Hang Seng – 19,152.11 (-0.46%)

Sector: TV Broadcasting

GTPL Shares Plunge on Weak Q3

GTPL Hathway shares dropped 9% to ₹133.50 on January 10 after a disappointing Q3 performance. The company reported a 57.2% YoY decline in net profit to ₹10.1 crore, down from ₹23.6 crore last year. Despite a 4.3% increase in revenue to ₹887.2 crore, operational performance weakened, with EBITDA falling 12.6% to ₹105.3 crore and margins dropping to 11.9% from 14.2%. The broadband segment added 37,000 subscribers, reaching 1.04 million, with 75% of homepass ready for fiber conversion. Digital cable TV added 200,000 active subscribers, bringing the total to 9.6 million, and paying subscribers grew to 8.9 million, generating ₹3,024 million in subscription revenue. Broadband ARPU rose slightly to ₹465, with average data usage per subscriber increasing to 365 GB per month. Despite strong pre-earnings momentum, the stock has fallen nearly 12% in three months.

Why it Matters:

GTPL Hathway’s weak Q3 results highlight challenges in maintaining profitability despite growing revenue and subscriber base. The decline in EBITDA and profit margins signals potential operational inefficiencies. For investors, this raises concerns about the company’s ability to sustain growth in a competitive broadband and cable TV market.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

TCS – 4212.00 (4.29%)

TECHM – 1683.85 (2.50%)

WIPRO – 298.05 (1.97%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

INDUSINDBK – 960.15 (-2.12%)

SHRIRAMFIN – 552.00 (-1.77%)

HINDALCO– 579.50 (-1.65%)

Sector: Gems & Jewellery

Profit-taking drags Senco Gold lower

Senco Gold shares dropped 3% to ₹1,086 on January 10 as investors booked profits despite a strong Q3 update. The company reported 22% year-on-year revenue growth and achieved record sales of ₹1,000 crore in October and ₹2,000 crore for Q3FY25. Retail demand grew 19%, especially in Tier 3 and Tier 4 towns, supported by reduced customs duties and festive buying during Dhanteras. Old gold contributed 38% of sales, signaling a shift to organized players. Same-store sales grew by 13-14%, and four new showrooms opened in Q3. Senco raised ₹459 crore through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), issuing shares at ₹1,125 each, boosting equity capital. It also launched a subsidiary to focus on premium leather goods, lab-grown diamonds, and perfumes. The company targets 19-20% sales growth for FY25 but has seen its shares drop over 23% in the last three months, underperforming the Nifty 50 index.

Why it Matters:

Senco Gold’s strong sales growth highlights the resilience of gold demand despite high prices, driven by festive buying and a shift to organized markets. The company’s expansion into lifestyle segments and new store openings signal diversification and growth potential. However, the recent stock decline underscores profit-booking and market volatility, which traders should watch closely.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stocks fell on Friday, closing the first trading week of 2025 on a weak note due to concerns over slower U.S. interest rate cuts and a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Japanese stocks dropped as strong wage and spending data fueled expectations of a BOJ rate hike, pressuring export-heavy companies. Chinese stocks slipped amid weak inflation data and fears of harsher U.S. trade policies, following Tencent’s addition to a U.S. blacklist. Broader Asian markets, including Australia and Singapore, were weighed down by risk aversion ahead of key U.S. payroll data, while South Korea faced political uncertainty. Indian markets remained subdued, with attention shifting to upcoming corporate earnings after recent losses driven by declining economic confidence.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,600

Bank Nifty – 51,000

Nifty 50 – 23,573 (Pivot)

Support – 23,456, 23,386, 23,270

Resistance – 23,642, 23,759, 23,829

Bank Nifty – 49,510 (Pivot)

Support – 49,223, 48,942, 48,655

Resistance – 49,791, 50,078, 50,358

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

 Have you checked our Super 7 Stocks for the Month of January 2025 ? Click Below

Weekly Report: 11th January 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Domestic equity benchmarks posted significant losses this week, largely due to weak economic data. Concerns over India’s foreign exchange performance and GDP growth projections pointing to a four-year low further weighed on market sentiment. This lower-than-expected growth is attributed to weak industrial and investment activity. Meanwhile, rising consumer price inflation in China and annual inflation in the Euro area added to global market jitters. Overall, the market ended on a negative note, with investors remaining cautious ahead of key developments.

Week Ahead

The domestic equities are likely to witness volatile trading next week as investors keenly await the release of Q3 earnings from major companies. Following the the earnings season, investor attention is expected to shift towards India’s upcoming Union Budget and the policy decisions of the new Trump administration in the United States. These events are anticipated to have a considerable influence on market trends in the near future. On the domestic front, India’s retail inflation (based on CPI) data for December will release on Monday, 13 January 2025. India’s WPI-based wholesale inflation for December will release on Tuesday, 14 January 2025. India’s balance of trade data for December will release on Wednesday, 15 January 2025.

Technical Overview
  • The benchmark index began the trading week by extending the selling pressure observed in the previous week, thereby establishing a bearish sentiment in the market. The index displayed a downward trend throughout the week, concluding 573 points lower than the prior weekly close. This movement was accompanied by a 10% increase in the VIX, which suggests rising fear and volatility among investors.
  • The week ended with the majority of broader and sectoral indices exhibiting significant downward pressure, alongside deteriorating negative momentum, marking a troubling development for the market.
  • Market breadth remained unfavorable and in an oversold condition. The proportion of stocks trading above shorter-term moving averages has persisted below the median threshold, with potential for further deterioration.
  • The percentage of stocks trading above the 200 and 50 DMA has been below the median for the fourth consecutive week, while those below the 200-daily moving average indicate a pressing concern.
  • On the momentum market breadth front, deteriorating numbers were observed following a slight recovery. Additionally, several associated parameters reached historic lows, reflecting ongoing weakness in general stock participation and indicating that the  markets are exhibiting a significant downswing across all timeframes.
  • From a technical perspective, the zone of 23340-23250 represents a critical support level. The index is currently trading below the 50-week moving average, which is situated near 23650. A decisive reclaiming of the average line will be essential to attract bullish support.
  • Given the prevailing oversold conditions in the market, it is likely that the overall bearish trend will persist; however, a reversal day appears imminent.
  • A gap-down on Monday could set the stage for an immediate technical reversal.
  • The pivotal zone near 24250 is expected to serve as formidable resistance. It is advisable to maintain a cautious stance in the current no-money market conditions, as the swing confidence of the overall market stands at zero, indicating that portfolios should refrain from undertaking any open risks.

To view the detailed report click here to   Download 

Newsletter: 09th January 2025

RBI Decision Drives Gains

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US headline indices reported little change on Wednesday as they struggled to find a definite momentum after investors priced in the impact of the two conflicting job data (lower jobless claims / slow growth in private sector employment). An element of concern was further added after President-elect Donald Trump’s consideration of declaring a national economic emergency to impose new tariffs. On the Asiatic front, the Nikkei opened lower, weighed down by the selling observed in its tech space, tracking its counterpart’s decline in the US bourses. Despite a weak start, Hang Seng recovered and continued to trade with a positive bias. On the domestic front, we expect the benchmarks to likely be under pressure, extending their losses today as well. As per the cues from GIFT Nifty, the benchmarks are expected to make a negative start, largely due to the pessimistic global sentiments. We also begin with the earnings season from today, with TCS reporting its earnings likely post-market hours. On the stock-specific front, Lupin received the Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the US FDA for its Pithampur Unit-1 manufacturing facility that manufactures both APIs and finished products.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex -77,909.91 (-0.31%)

Nifty 50 – 23,621.30 (-0.29%)

Bank Nifty – 49,681.75 (-0.31%)

Dow Jones – 42,503.79 (-0.32%)

Nasdaq – 19,457.93 (-0.07%)

FTSE – 8,251.03 (0.07%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,457.76 (-1.30%)

Hang Seng – 19,327.11 (0.24%)

Sector: NBFC

RBI Relief Boosts Manappuram Finance Shares

Manappuram Finance shares rose 6% to ₹191 on January 9 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lifted restrictions on its microfinance arm, Asirvad Micro Finance. These restrictions were imposed in October 2024 due to non-compliance with pricing regulations. Asirvad, acquired by Manappuram in 2015, focuses on providing loans to low-income women and contributed 27% of the company’s revenue in FY24. Analysts view the RBI’s move as positive but note that challenges in the microfinance sector may keep disbursements slow in the near term. Jefferies increased its price target to ₹190 but retained a cautious outlook, while Morgan Stanley set a target of ₹175, awaiting clarity on loan policies. While the stock has risen 17% since the October drop, overall movement has been modest in recent months, with analysts suggesting short-term earnings could face pressure due to ongoing issues in the microfinance segment.

Why it Matters:

This matters because lifting the RBI restrictions boosts confidence in Manappuram’s compliance and operations, supporting its stock recovery. The microfinance segment is a key revenue driver, and regulatory clarity can stabilize investor sentiment. However, sector challenges may limit growth in the near term, impacting earnings potential.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

KOTAKBANK – 1798.00 (1.66%)

BAJAJ-AUTO – 8771.00 (1.49%)

HINDALCO – 593.80 (1.22%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

LT – 3555.10 (-1.15%)

SBIN – 762.55 (-1.12%)

TRENT– 6632.25 (-1.00%)

Sector: Energy

Advait Energy Rises on Gujrat Lol

Advait Energy’s stock rose 1.5% to ₹1,552 on January 9 after receiving a Letter of Intent (LoI) from Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam for a 50 MW/500 MWh portion of a 500 MW/1,000 MWh battery energy storage project under a competitive bidding process with funding support, to be completed in 18 months. The company also secured a contract to upgrade power lines in Surendranagar, including the 66KV Dhrangadhra and Viramgam lines, by installing high-capacity conductors. In December 2024, Advait received an order for fiber optic installations along a 400 KV transmission line. The stock is 31% below its 52-week high of ₹2,260 but 88% above its 52-week low of ₹825, reflecting strong momentum driven by new contracts and strategic projects.

Why it Matters:

This matters because Advait Energy’s new contracts, including a major battery storage project and power line upgrades, strengthen its growth prospects and market position. These strategic wins boost investor confidence in its operational capabilities. The stock’s recovery from its 52-week low highlights strong momentum driven by these developments.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Most Asian stocks declined on Thursday as concerns grew over the slower pace of U.S. interest rate cuts this year, coupled with weak inflation data from China pointing to slowing growth. Chinese markets dropped slightly as consumer and producer inflation remained weak despite recent stimulus, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.8% due to strong wage data fueling fears of higher inflation and potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The yen strengthened, hurting export stocks. Broader Asian markets, including Australia and Singapore, also slipped on weak retail sales and trade data, though South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.4% amid political uncertainty. Indian markets faced pressure from weak earnings ahead of a busy earnings season next week. Overall, concerns over inflation, slowing growth, and higher-for-longer interest rates weighed on investor sentiment.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,800

Bank Nifty – 51,200

Nifty 50 – 23,645 (Pivot)

Support – 23,539, 23,389, 23,283

Resistance – 23,795, 23,901, 24,050

Bank Nifty – 49,823 (Pivot)

Support – 49,400, 48,966, 48,543

Resistance – 50,258, 50,681, 51,115

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

 Have you checked our Super 7 Stocks for the Month of January 2025 ? Click Below

Newsletter: 08th January 2025

GM Breweries' Profit Dip

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US frontlines tumbled down on Tuesday after data showed resilience in the US economy, indicating that Fed could cut rates fewer times this year against the expectations of the market. The Asian markets also displayed a tepid performance, with Nikkei showcasing a weak performance during the trade led by weak US sentiments, while Hang Seng declined, led by the decline in tech stocks. On the domestic front, Indian markets are likely to open on a negative note, and we have a sense that the benchmarks will likely be under pressure from sellers during the day. After highlighting a mixed performance, with a heavy decline on Monday while making a rebound yesterday, we believe the negative global sentiments will also weigh in. On stock specific note, we remain largely positive on RVNL during the day after it signed an MOU with Dubai-based GBH International for infra projects in the GCC region.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –78,129.17 (-0.09%)

Nifty 50 – 23,698.55 (-0.04%)

Bank Nifty – 50,109.20 (-0.19%)

Dow Jones – 42,527.79 (0.01%)

Nasdaq – 19,487.67 (-1.90%)

FTSE – 8,245.28 (-0.05%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,992.59 (-0.23%)

Hang Seng – 19,139.54 (-1.58%)

Sector: Beverages

GM Breweries Q3 Profit Declines

GM Breweries reported a 3% drop in net profit for the December 2024 quarter, earning Rs 22 crore compared to Rs 22.6 crore in the same period last year. Despite the decline in profit, its revenue from operations increased by 4% to Rs 644 crore, up from Rs 618 crore a year earlier. The company’s total income also rose by 3% to Rs 645.21 crore. However, this performance had little impact on its stock price, which remained flat, trading slightly lower at Rs 794 per share. Established in 1981, GM Breweries specializes in producing and selling alcoholic beverages, including country liquor (CL) and Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL).

Why it Matters:

GM Breweries’ Q3 results highlight stable revenue growth despite a slight dip in profit, reflecting strong demand for its products. The performance of its stock post-results indicates market neutrality. As a key player in the liquor industry, its financial trends are relevant for tracking consumer and sector health.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

DRREDDY – 1399.70 (3.56%)

ONGC – 269.00 (2.09%)

RELIANCE – 1255.40 (1.17%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

TRENT – 6610.20 (-3.84%)

SHRIRAMFIN – 2883.00 (-2.55%)

ADANIPORTS– 1152.35 (-1.84%)

Sector: Fintech

MobiKwik Shares Surge on Reduced Losses

MobiKwik’s stock surged nearly 14% on January 7 after the company reported a reduced net loss of Rs 3.6 crore for Q2 FY25, compared to Rs 6.6 crore in Q1. The loss was attributed to increased investments for future growth. Despite this, revenue rose 43%, which improved investor sentiment and boosted the stock to an intraday high of Rs 637.80 on the NSE. MobiKwik shares were listed in December 2024 at a 60% premium following strong demand during its IPO. The stock debuted at Rs 440 on the NSE and Rs 442.25 on the BSE, significantly higher than its issue price of Rs 279, giving the company a market valuation of Rs 3,890.14 crore.

Why it Matters:

MobiKwik’s narrowing losses signal improved financial management and growth potential, boosting investor confidence. The stock’s strong performance reflects optimism about its future profitability and expansion plans. With a 43% revenue jump, the company is positioned as a key player in the growing fintech sector.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian markets showed mixed results on Wednesday, with Chinese stocks dropping as the U.S. blacklisted major firms like Tencent and CATL, further straining U.S.-China relations. Japanese markets fell after officials warned of potential currency market intervention, which could affect exporters due to the yen’s recent weakness. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.1%, boosted by Samsung’s 2.7% gain despite weak earnings. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.6%, with inflation data fueling expectations of early rate cuts. Singapore’s Straits Times index gained 0.4%, while Indian markets were set for a positive open ahead of key earnings reports. Wall Street futures edged higher after Tuesday’s tech-led losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell nearly 0.9%, pressured by BYD’s 2% drop after labor law violation fines in Brazil. Uncertainty around U.S. interest rates and President Trump’s trade policies continued to weigh on sentiment, keeping markets cautious as 2025 unfolds.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,900

Bank Nifty – 51,500

Nifty 50 – 23,713 (Pivot)

Support – 23,632, 23,556, 23,474

Resistance – 23,789, 23,871, 23,946

Bank Nifty – 50,206 (Pivot)

Support – 49,965, 49,728, 49,486

Resistance – 50,443, 50,684, 50,921

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our Top Stocks for 2025 ? Click below

Newsletter: 07th January 2025

Record Growth for Kalyan

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US market rose broadly overnight, the dollar dropped, and yields on long-term Treasury securities increased as Foxconn reported record fourth-quarter revenue. President-elect Donald Trump called reports about him considering scaling back his tariff plans “fake news.” The Asian market was mainly higher this morning after a rally in technology shares boosted Wall Street’s main indexes overnight. Oil steadied after its first drop in six sessions, while gold ticked higher as investors awaited more US economic data this week for additional clues on the Fed’s rate trajectory. Indian markets are expected to remain under selling pressure on Tuesday despite positive global cues led by the decline to high valuations, weak business updates from banks and FMCG firms, and concerns over the spread of human metapneumovirus (HMPV). Tightening liquidity, slowing deposit growth, and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows have further dampened sentiment.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –78,019.80 (0.07%)

Nifty 50 – 23,679.90 (0.27%)

Bank Nifty – 50,061.20 (0.28%)

Dow Jones – 42,630.97 (-0.25%)

Nasdaq – 19,867.81 (1.25%)

FTSE – 8,249.66 (0.31%)

Nikkei 225 – 40,109.18 (2.04%)

Hang Seng – 19,335.49 (-1.82%)

Sector: Jewellery

Kalyan Jewellers Thrives on Festive Demand

Kalyan Jewellers reported a strong 39% growth in consolidated revenue for the December quarter, driven by robust festive and wedding demand. Its India operations saw a 41% increase, with notable demand in both gold and studded jewelry. Same-store sales grew by 24%, and the company opened 24 new showrooms in India, with more planned for the coming quarter. Looking ahead to FY26, Kalyan plans to launch 170 showrooms, including 75 in non-south India, 15 in south India and international markets, and 80 under its Candere brand. The company also expanded internationally by opening its first showroom in the U.S. Revenue from the Middle East rose 22%, contributing 11% of total revenue, while Candere, its digital-first platform, grew by 89% and added 23 showrooms. Over the past year, Kalyan Jewellers’ shares have surged by more than 108%, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth strategy.

Why it Matters:

Kalyan Jewellers’ strong performance highlights the significant demand in the festive and wedding sectors, indicating a robust growth opportunity for the company. Its strategic showroom expansions and digital growth are key drivers for long-term success. This solid financial performance, combined with a share price surge, makes it an attractive option for investors.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

APOLLOHOSP – 7440.00 (1.94%)

TATACONSUM – 950.00 (1.12%)

TITAN – 3476.50 (0.72%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

TATASTEEL – 132.00 (-4.60%)

TRENT – 6989.95 (-4.35%)

BPCL – 285.50 (-3.68%)

Sector: Real Estate

Ashoka Buildcon Surges on NHAI Deal

Ashoka Buildcon shares rose over 4% to ₹290 after its subsidiary signed a deal with NHAI for a ₹1,391 crore project in West Bengal. The project involves building a four-lane road on NH 116A under the hybrid annuity model and will take 910 days to complete. Recently, the company also secured a ₹1,055 crore contract with Bangalore International Airport for constructing taxiways and other infrastructure, set to finish in 24 months. Ashoka Buildcon reported a massive 334% rise in Q2 net profit to ₹462.5 crore, with revenue up 15.5% and EBITDA margins improving significantly to 36.4%. The stock has rallied over 25% in the past three months, outperforming the Nifty 50 index, and hit a 52-week high of ₹319 on December 31, 2024. This strong performance reflects the company’s robust order book and operational efficiency, making it a key player in infrastructure development.

Why it Matters:

Ashoka Buildcon’s strong project wins, including a ₹1,391 crore NHAI deal and a ₹1,055 crore airport contract, highlight its growing presence in infrastructure development. Its robust financial performance, with a 334% profit rise in Q2, showcases operational strength. The stock’s outperformance signals investor confidence in its growth trajectory.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stock markets saw gains on Tuesday, driven by a rebound in technology shares following strong performance on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.4%, and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.9%, supported by optimism around artificial intelligence, particularly NVIDIA’s anticipated announcements at a major tech event. Meanwhile, Chinese markets underperformed, with the Hang Seng index falling 0.5% as Tencent and CATL dropped over 5% after being added to a U.S. blacklist, raising concerns over trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Broader Asian markets showed modest gains, with Australia’s ASX 200 up 0.2% and Singapore’s Straits Times Index rising 0.1%. In India, Nifty 50 futures indicated a slight recovery after a sharp 1.6% drop on Monday due to weak earnings from major firms like HDFC Bank and Dabur. Despite Tuesday’s gains, regional markets remained cautious about prolonged U.S. interest rate hikes and ongoing trade uncertainties.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,755

Bank Nifty – 50,181

Nifty 50 – 23,752 (Pivot)

Support – 23,415, 23,214, 22,877

Resistance – 23,953, 24,290, 24,491

Bank Nifty – 50,233 (Pivot)

Support – 49,439, 48,957, 48,164

Resistance – 50,715, 51,508, 51,990

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our Top Stocks for 2025 ? Click below