Weekly Report: 04th Aug 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity benchmarks closed the week with sharp losses as escalating geopolitical tensions and trade concerns weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The announcement of a 25% US tariff on Indian goods and uncertainty surrounding India’s procurement from Russia dampened risk appetite, leading to broad-based declines across large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap indices. Despite mid-week support from value buying in blue chips and upbeat earnings from select heavyweights like L&T, the overall market mood remained cautious. Macroeconomic positives, including an IMF upgrade to India’s growth forecast and a rebound in manufacturing activity, were largely overshadowed by global volatility, tariff shocks, and weak cues from international markets, particularly China and the US.

Week Ahead

In the upcoming week, markets are expected to remain on edge amid global trade tensions and a flurry of high-impact economic events. Investor focus will largely pivot toward the RBI monetary policy decision, due Wednesday, especially after its surprise 50 bps rate cut in May. With borrowing costs at their lowest since August 2022, market participants will watch closely for further cues on the central bank’s policy stance amid evolving growth-inflation dynamics. On the data front, India’s     Services and Composite PMI readings for July will be released, offering insights into domestic demand conditions following signs of a mild slowdown from June’s highs. Meanwhile, a busy earnings calendar featuring names like SBI, Tata Motors, LIC, and Adani Ports will also drive stock-specific movements. Globally, the release of China’s Caixin Services PMI and trade data will be key, especially given recent signs of weakness in the country’s services sector. In the US, factory orders and ISM Services PMI data for June and July respectively, along with crude inventory updates, will guide sentiment. Together, these indicators will shape the broader market narrative around global demand, trade imbalances, and monetary policy expectations across key economies.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty has now declined for five straight weeks — a rare occurrence that signals persistent selling pressure. This pattern reflects broader risk-off sentiment and consistent profit booking at higher levels.
  • The rising channel that has guided the Nifty higher over the past few months has been broken decisively on the downside. This invalidates the prior uptrend structure and often marks a change in market behavior.
  • Nifty has convincingly slipped below its 50-day exponential moving average. This key average, which often acts as a support in uptrends, is now likely to act as resistance.
  • Price is approaching a well-established horizontal support zone near 24,400. This level has previously acted as a pivot. A close below this could lead to further decline toward 24,000 and even 23,800 in the near term.
  • The MACD indicator has given a clean bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram has turned negative. This typically marks a momentum shift from bullish to bearish and suggests increased likelihood of sustained downside.
  • The ADX is currently at 13.09, indicating a low-strength trend. While this doesn’t confirm a strong downtrend yet, it does suggest a lack of conviction on either side.
  • The Relative Strength Index is currently at 36 — a bearish reading. It has broken its prior support zone around 45 and is pointing downward. A fall below 30 would indicate oversold conditions.
  • Price is now trading below the cloud, while both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are sloping downward. The Senkou Span A and B are flat, suggesting a lack of upward momentum.
  • Despite intraday recoveries, the index is consistently facing rejection in the 25,000–25,200 range. This zone aligns with the 50 EMA and previous breakdown levels. A breakout above this band with strong follow-through is essential.
  • Conclusion:
    To sum up, Nifty is under clear technical pressure. Multiple indicators — from trendlines and moving averages to oscillators like RSI and MACD — point to a weakening structure. If the index breaches 24,400 decisively, expect further drift toward 24,000–23,800. For any signs of revival, bulls need to reclaim 25,000–25,200 on a closing basis. Until then, the risk remains tilted to the downside, and positional traders should maintain a cautious outlook.

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Weekly Report: 28th Jul 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity indices ended the week in the red, weighed down by disappointing earnings, global uncertainties, and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows. The week started on a strong note, supported by upbeat Q1 results. However, momentum weakened midweek due to weaker-than-expected IT earnings and stalled US-India trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline. Consequently, the Nifty slipped below the 24,850 level, with broader indices underperforming sharply. On a positive note, India and the UK signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement on Thursday, aimed at boosting annual bilateral trade by $34 billion. As part of the deal, India will reduce tariffs on 90% of goods imported from the UK, while the UK will eliminate duties on 99% of Indian exports. The agreement is expected to benefit key sectors such as leather, textiles, electronics, and software, and also encourage fresh investments between the two countries.

Week Ahead

The domestic equity market may witness increased volatility in the coming week, influenced by a combination of global cues and the ongoing Q1FY26 corporate earnings season. Countries are expected to intensify trade negotiations with the US ahead of President Trump’s self-imposed August 1 deadline. On the domestic front, key economic data releases include India’s industrial production figures on Monday (July 28), the government’s fiscal balance for June on Thursday (July 31), and the July manufacturing PMI on Friday (August 1). Globally, China will release the NBS Manufacturing PMI on Thursday (July 31) and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday (August 1). In the US, numbers relating to job openings for June, GDP growth rate figures, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, all expected on Tuesday (July 29). Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index will be released on Thursday (July 31), followed by non-farm payroll data, the unemployment rate, and the manufacturing PMI on Friday (August 1).

Technical Overview
  • Nifty has posted four consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing bearish sentiment. The failure to attract sustained buying even after brief recoveries suggests that the short-term uptrend has likely paused.
  • The 25,000–25,200 range has now emerged as a strong supply zone. Despite multiple intraday attempts, the index has been unable to hold above this psychological level.
  • Nifty is currently hovering near a key short-term support at 24,500, marked by a previous demand zone and horizontal support. A breakdown below this may open the door toward the broader support cluster between 24,100–23,900.
  • The Relative Strength Index has slipped to 40.71, now below the neutral 50 mark. This shift implies weakening bullish momentum, and suggests sellers are gaining control.
  • ADX at 15.67 reflects a lack of strong trend, and indicates sideways to weak downward bias. The declining nature of the ADX line reinforces that current market moves lack conviction.
  • The MACD has slipped into negative territory, with a bearish crossover below the signal line, and histogram values deepening in red.
  • Price action is nearing the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud, a key dynamic support zone. If Nifty decisively breaks below this cloud, it would indicate a trend reversal and attract further selling pressure.
  • Nifty has broken below its 20-DMA, which has provided reliable support in recent months. This breach adds weight to the short-term bearish view and will likely prompt more unwinding unless the index reclaims this level swiftly.
  • A visible formation of lower highs and lower closes on both daily and weekly timeframes marks a classic sign of trend exhaustion. Unless Nifty surpasses the last swing high convincingly, the index may continue forming lower levels.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty is showing signs of exhaustion after multiple failed attempts to scale above 25,000. The broader trend remains intact but near-term momentum has clearly weakened. As long as Nifty stays below the 25,200 mark, upside remains capped. A decisive breach below 24,500 could intensify the correction toward 24,100–23,900. Indicators like RSI, MACD, and ADX support a cautious-to-bearish stance in the short term.

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Weekly Report: 21st Jul 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian equity benchmarks ended the week with sharp losses, dragged down by weak earnings from major IT and banking names, despite intermittent relief from easing inflation data. The Sensex slipped 742.74 points (0.90%) to 81,757.73, while the Nifty 50 fell 181.45 points (0.72%) to 24,968.40, though mid and small caps outperformed with weekly gains of 1.04% and 1.46%, respectively. Key companies like HCL Tech, Axis Bank, and Tech Mahindra reported disappointing results, whereas ITC Hotels and SBI (QIP Issue) posted positive surprises. On the macro front, India’s CPI cooled to a multi-year low of 2.10% in June, while WPI inflation stayed negative, and forex reserves fell by $3.05 billion. Globally, mixed signals from Japan, China, and Singapore, alongside renewed trade war concerns and softening inflation in major economies, added to the cautious investor sentiment.

Week Ahead

The upcoming week (July 21-25) is expected to witness heightened volatility in the domestic equity markets, driven by mixed global cues and a packed Q1FY26 earnings calendar. While India’s macroeconomic environment remains supportive, thanks to easing inflation, declining interest rates, a favorable monsoon, and softer crude prices, market participants remain cautious due to stretched valuations, making corporate earnings upgrades crucial for sustaining market momentum. The earnings season will dominate market sentiment, with heavyweight banks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Yes Bank kicking off the week, followed by major results from companies such as UltraTech Cement, Infosys and Bajaj Finance through the week. On the macro front, infrastructure output data will be released on July 21, while PMI data for manufacturing, services, and composite will be announced on July 24. Globally, attention will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, US existing home sales, the ECB interest rate decision, and US durable goods orders, all of which may influence market direction amid ongoing concerns about persistent US inflation and trade disruptions.

Technical Overview
  • The index attempted multiple times to sustain above the upper band of resistance but failed to attract follow-through buying. Price action shows upper wicks and reversals near 25,250-25,400 zone, suggesting active supply and short-term profit booking by market participants.
  • Despite intraday moves above 25,000, the index has failed to close above this level on a weekly basis. This inability reflects indecision and raises caution for bulls. Sustained trade below  25,000 mark increases the probability of a deeper pullback.
  • This range coincides with recent swing lows, horizontal supports, and also aligns with the mid-point of the upward channel. A break below 24,700-24,500 zone may extend the decline toward 24,100–23,900, which is the next demand area.
  • The ADX is below 15, indicating a weak directional trend. This suggests a lack of strong momentum from either bulls or bears, and often precedes a consolidation phase or trend reversal depending on the follow-up move.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off and is trending flat below the midline (50). This loss in momentum without reaching overbought territory reflects distribution rather than healthy profit-taking.
  • While the price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, which is generally bullish, the base and conversion lines have started to flatten. This suggests a pause or loss of acceleration in the prevailing trend. The cloud is thinning ahead, indicating possible volatility.
  • Nifty continues to move within its medium-term rising channel. However, the recent candles are showing upper wicks and smaller real bodies, which often indicates supply on rise and loss of strong buyer conviction at higher levels.
  • A decisive breakout above 25,800 will invalidate current weakness and resume the bullish structure toward fresh highs. A break below 24,500 will intensify selling, potentially dragging the index to 24,100–23,900. For now, the index is in a no-trade zone unless it gives directional confirmation beyond these critical levels.
  • The index has breached the 10-day EMA envelope, a key short-term dynamic support zone, which suggests the trend may be undergoing a short-term shift or cooling off
  • Multiple indecisive to bearish candles near the recent highs indicate distribution, with price rejection visible above the 25,270–25,300 zone
  • The 14-day RSI has slipped to 48.75, losing its grip above the neutral 50 mark, indicating weakening momentum and increased vulnerability to further downside.
  • While +DI at 24.06 still remains above -DI at 24.14, the spread has sharply narrowed. Combined with a low ADX at 20.15, this indicates a fading trend and rising chances of a consolidation or minor reversal.
  • The MACD histogram remains in green territory, currently at +150.56, but has begun to flatten, hinting at slowing upside traction.
  • Price is now hovering just above the 25,100–25,000 zone — a region that has acted as short-term support in recent weeks and is being retested.
  • Failure to hold the support zone this week could lead to deeper retracement, possibly toward 24,600 or lower, as bullish conviction appears to be waning.
  • Unless Nifty stabilizes above 25,100, the short-term trend may flip in favor of bears. A close below 25,000 could trigger broader unwinding.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty has slipped below the 10-day EMA envelope and registered two successive weekly losses, signaling caution. The index must hold 25,100–25,000 in the upcoming week to avoid triggering further downside toward 24,600. Momentum indicators are softening, and traders may adopt a wait-and-watch stance unless strength returns above 25,270.

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Weekly Report: 14th Jul 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity indices ended the week lower as investors turned cautious amid global trade uncertainties and the upcoming Q1 earnings season. Sentiment was dampened by ongoing concerns over potential US tariff measures, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new import duties on major trade partners. Caution also prevailed ahead of a potential breakthrough in US-India trade negotiations, with market participants awaiting clarity on the implications for key sectors. India’s foreign currency assets and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) rose, while gold reserves declined. The country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also saw an increase. Globally, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% in June compared to the previous year, marking the steepest decline in nearly two years. Conversely, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up by just 0.1% YoY.

Week Ahead

After a turbulent week marked by global tariff concerns and a muted start to the Q1 earnings season, market sentiment remains cautious. The Nifty and Sensex have faced selling pressure across key sectors, with investor confidence dampened by geopolitical uncertainties and disappointing early earnings reports. Looking ahead, the upcoming week may see a phase of consolidation. As the earnings season gathers momentum, sector-specific volatility is expected to dominate. On the domestic front, India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation and Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) rate for June will be released on Monday, 14 July 2025, followed by the Balance of Trade data on Tuesday, 15 July 2025. Globally, China’s Balance of Trade figures for June are due on Monday, while its Q2 GDP growth rate, Industrial Production (YoY), and Retail Sales (YoY) will be released on Tuesday, 15 July  2025. In the US, Core Inflation Rate (MoM and YoY), Inflation Rate (MoM and YoY) for June are scheduled for release on Tuesday, 15 July 2025, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Wednesday, 16 July 2025.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty ended the week at 25,149.85, down 205 points, marking its second consecutive weekly decline—a signal that bullish momentum is clearly under stress.
  • The index has breached the 10-day EMA envelope, a key short-term dynamic support zone, which suggests the trend may be undergoing a short-term shift or cooling off.
  • Multiple indecisive to bearish candles near the recent highs indicate distribution, with price rejection visible above the 25,270–25,300 zone
  • The 14-day RSI has slipped to 48.75, losing its grip above the neutral 50 mark, indicating weakening momentum and increased vulnerability to further downside.
  • While +DI at 24.06 still remains above -DI at 24.14, the spread has sharply narrowed. Combined with a low ADX at 20.15, this indicates a fading trend and rising chances of a consolidation or minor reversal.
  • The MACD histogram remains in green territory, currently at +150.56, but has begun to flatten, hinting at slowing upside traction.
  • Price is now hovering just above the 25,100–25,000 zone — a region that has acted as short-term support in recent weeks and is being retested.
  • Failure to hold the support zone this week could lead to deeper retracement, possibly toward 24,600 or lower, as bullish conviction appears to be waning.
  • Unless Nifty stabilizes above 25,100, the short-term trend may flip in favor of bears. A close below 25,000 could trigger broader unwinding.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty has slipped below the 10-day EMA envelope and registered two successive weekly losses, signaling caution. The index must hold 25,100–25,000 in the upcoming week to avoid triggering further downside toward 24,600. Momentum indicators are softening, and traders may adopt a wait-and-watch stance unless strength returns above 25,270.

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Weekly Report: 07th Jul 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian key equity indices ended with significant losses during the week, weighted down by ongoing uncertainty over the India–US trade deal, weak industrial output data, and cautious sentiment ahead of the earnings season. During the week, Nifty 50 ended lower by 0.69% to settle at 25,461.70, while the Sensex dropped by 0.74% to settle at 83,432.89. Investor focus remained firmly on geopolitical developments, as the looming July 9 deadline for the India–US trade negotiations added pressure, with potential tariffs of up to 36% on Indian exports if no agreement is reached. Domestically, industrial output growth slowed sharply to 1.2% in May, a nine-month low, led by contractions in mining and electricity sectors. However, June PMI data showed strong momentum in services and manufacturing, offering some optimism. Globally, U.S. private payroll data was disappointing with jobs decline by 33,000 in June against expectations of a 99,000 gain, while nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, above expectations. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the third straight month in June indicating signs of weakness. Adding to global trade jitters, the U.S. imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports while receiving zero tariffs in return, fueling concerns of escalating protectionism.

Week Ahead

Next week, investor sentiment will be shaped primarily by global developments, with no major domestic events scheduled. Markets will closely monitor progress on the potential US–India trade agreement, which, if confirmed, could boost equity market momentum. On the global front, key economic data from China and the U.S. will be in focus. China will release its Inflation Rate (YoY) data for June on July 9, following a 0.1% year-on-year decline in May. Also on July 9, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release the FOMC Minutes from its June policy meeting, where it maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, as it continues to assess the impact of recent policy moves. Later in the week, on July 12, China’s Balance of Trade data for June will be released, after posting a strong $103.22 billion surplus in May. In the absence of major domestic triggers, the Indian market will take cues from these global indicators, along with trends in crude oil prices and geopolitical developments.

Technical Overview
  • Despite strong intraday moves, Nifty has yet to deliver a weekly close above the 25,500 mark — a key resistance level that has capped upside momentum for two weeks in a row.

  • The latest daily candle signals hesitation near resistance, with prices closing at 25,461.00, barely changed despite testing intraday highs of 25,470.25.

  • The RSI at 61.01 continues to indicate strength, but its flattening suggests short-term momentum may be stalling just below critical resistance.

  •  Nifty remains well above its short-term and medium-term moving averages. The broader bullish structure remains intact, supported by higher highs and higher lows.

  • The +DI at 28.45 stays elevated above the -DI at 21.29, suggesting bullish bias persists. However, the ADX at 18.38 indicates that trend strength is modest and may need a catalyst to accelerate.

  •  MACD histogram continues to stay in positive territory with a reading of +216.08, indicating sustained bullish momentum, albeit without fresh acceleration.

  • The index appears to be consolidating just below resistance, possibly forming a base before the next leg higher — provided it breaks decisively above 25,500.

  • The rising support zone at 25,000 has acted as a cushion for the past few sessions and is likely to serve as the immediate downside reference level.

  • A weekly close above 25,500 would mark a significant breakout and likely open the path toward 25,800–26,000 in the short term.

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Weekly Report: 30th Jun 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Equity markets rallied this week, closing higher in four of five sessions, fueled by strong FII inflows, upbeat PMI data, and optimism over a tentative Iran-Israel ceasefire. The Sensex jumped 2% to 84,059, while the Nifty surged 2.1% to 25,638. Mid- and small-caps outperformed, gaining 2.3% and 3.6%, respectively. On the macro front, Japan’s manufacturing sector showed recovery and inflation eased, while China posted a sharp 9.1% decline in industrial profits. The U.S. reported its first GDP contraction since 2022, though jobless claims saw improvement. Domestically, India’s HSBC Flash Composite PMI hit a 14-month high of 61.0, reflecting robust growth in both manufacturing and services.

Week Ahead

Indian equity markets may open the coming week on a cautiously optimistic note, supported by geopolitical relief following the tentative Iran-Israel ceasefire and renewed global risk appetite. Continued FII buying and strong mid- and smallcap participation could provide near-term support, while all eyes shift to key US Fed commentary and trade tariff developments. Domestically, macro releases such as May IIP, Q1 current account, and final June PMI readings will guide investor sentiment. Globally, crucial data including China and US PMI, Japan’s Tankan Index, and US jobs data will shape risk perception.

Technical Overview
  • After nearly seven weeks of sideways consolidation, NIFTY has registered a clean breakout above the 25,200 barrier, closing at 25,637.80 — a clear sign of renewed bullish momentum.
  • The index printed a new 52-week high of 25,654.20, reinforcing market conviction and strengthening the current uptrend.
  • The 14-day RSI at 67.72 indicates rising momentum, comfortably positioned in bullish territory, yet below overbought levels — leaving room for further upside.
  • The +DI at 36.93 remains significantly above -DI at 16.00, reflecting a strong positive directional move. The ADX at 18.12, while modest, hints at a trend in the early stages of development.
  • MACD histogram continues to rise, with a reading of +205.30, highlighting sustained positive price action and continuation of the bullish structure.
  • Price remains firmly above the key exponential moving averages (20/50/100/200), underscoring the technical strength of the trend. The slope of the short-term averages continues to point upward.
  • The breach of the 25,500 mark — a psychologically important level — indicates improved sentiment and broader acceptance of higher valuations.
  • With the breakout confirmed, the next zone of resistance is now seen at 25,800–26,000, where previous price extensions and round-number resistance align.
  • The former resistance range of 25,200–25,000 will now act as the immediate support zone. Holding above this level will be critical to sustain the ongoing trend.

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Weekly Report: 23rd Jun 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The domestic markets ended with major gains during the week despite overcoming midweek weakness caused by rising tensions between Israel and Iran. After three straight sessions of losses, markets rebounded sharply on Friday. Broader markets underperformed. Investors largely overlooked domestic economic data and remained focused on geopolitical developments. The key equity indices ended with significant gains on Friday, snapping a three day losing streak in a row, as market remained firm despite rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 1,046.30 points or 1.29% to 82,408.17. The Nifty 50 index jumped 319.15 points or 1.29% to 25,112.40. On the economic front, India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to a 14-month low of 0.39% in May 2025, down from 0.85% in April. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 3.7% in May from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, accelerating from a 3.5% increase in April.

Week Ahead

As the new week kicks off, markets are entering with cautious optimism. While Friday’s rebound brought some cheer, investors remain alert to developments in West Asia. Any flare-up in tensions could push crude oil prices higher, reviving volatility and unsettling sentiment. With no major domestic triggers on the radar, developments in the Middle East, US economic data, and crude oil prices, will likely dictate the mood. The advice remains to stay selectively bullish, align with sectoral trends, and prioritize stock-specific opportunities over index bets. India’s HSBC Composite PMI Flash for June will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. US existing home sales data for May will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony will take place on Tuesday, 24 June 2025. US GDP growth rate data for Q1 (final) will release on Thursday, 26 June 2025.

Technical Overview
  • NIFTY ended the week on a strong note at 25,112.40, gaining +319.15 points (+1.29%), indicating bullish momentum and a
    successful breakout attempt from recent consolidation.
  • The index approached the previous swing high of 25,116.25. A sustained move above this level will confirm the breakout
    and open up higher targets.
  • The zone of 25,000–25,200 now acts as immediate support. Holding above this level in the coming week is essential for the
    continuation of the uptrend.
  • The breakout was backed by higher-than-average volume (574.58M), indicating strong participation and conviction from
    market participants.
  • The RSI at 59.09 reflects healthy momentum, staying well below overbought levels and suggesting room for further upside.
  • The ADX stands at 13.25, indicating that while the trend is positive, it is not yet strongly established. A rise in ADX in the
    coming days would further validate bullish strength.
  • The +DI remains well above -DI, showing that buyers are still in control of the price action despite a relatively soft ADX
    reading.
  • The MACD histogram remains in green territory, showing that upside momentum persists, though fresh expansion is needed
    for aggressive follow-through.
  • Key Support Level at 24,400While immediate support lies at 24,962–24,785, a break below 24,400 would invalidate the
    bullish bias and could trigger a near-term corrective move.
  • For the coming week, NIFTY must hold above the 25,000–25,200 zone to maintain upward momentum. If it manages to
    sustain these levels, we could see continued call unwinding and a push toward 25,350–25,500. However, a decisive move
    below 24,400 would negate the bullish view and warrant caution.

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Weekly Report: 16th Jun 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity indices posted sharp losses during the week, weighed down by geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks and escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Sentiment further deteriorated after Israel carried out military strikes on Iran, heightening tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.  In the week ended on Friday, 13 June 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 1,070.39 points or 1.30% to settle at 81,118.60. The Nifty 50 index tumbled 284.45 points or 1.14% to settle at 24,718.60. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.90% to close at 45,681.28. The BSE Small-Cap fell 0.13% to end at 53,370.29. In the week ended on Friday, 13 June 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 1,070.39 points or 1.30% to settle at 81,118.60. The Nifty 50 index tumbled 284.45 points or 1.14% to settle at 24,718.60. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.90% to close at 45,681.28. The BSE Small-Cap fell 0.13% to end at 53,370.29.

Week Ahead

The coming week may keep Indian equities under pressure, with sentiment fragile amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The recent Israeli military strike has raised fears of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt oil supply chains and weigh on global economic activity. Brent crude has already surged to $78 per barrel, and further escalation could send prices soaring even higher. India’s WPI inflation data for May will be released on Monday, 16 June 2025.  On Friday, 20 June 2025, the RBI will release the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting, along with infrastructure output data for May.  The US will release its retail sales month-on-month data for May on Tuesday, 17 June 2025. Japan’s inflation rate for May will be released on Friday, 20 June 2025.

Technical Overview
  • NIFTY 50 closed the session at 24,718.60, down 169.60 points, after opening nearly 450 points gap-down, clearly rejecting the critical resistance at 25,116.

  • The index continues to face strong supply near 25,100–25,150. Multiple rejection wicks suggest that bulls are losing momentum near this zone.

  • With a decisive close below 24,750 and a breakdown from the recent consolidation zone, NIFTY may now enter a broader sideways-to-negative range between 24,530–25,100.

  • Key supports lie at 24,537–24,630, marked by previous swing lows and high-volume nodes. A breach below 24,530 may trigger further downside toward 24,200 and even 23,800.

  • RSI likely heading below 55, showing fading bullish momentum. MACD Histogram is flattening, suggesting exhaustion in upward momentum.

  • ADX may continue to flatten, signaling weakening trend strength unless bulls regain control above 25,100.

  • On the options front, heavy call writing seen at 24,900 & 25,000, indicating a strong near-term resistance zone.

  • Put support is visible at 24,500, which remains the immediate downside cushion.

Conclusion:
The structure has weakened with a decisive rejection from the 25,116 zone. As long as 24,530 holds, the index may witness sideways consolidation. However, any breach below that may open the gates for deeper retracement. Sustaining above 25,000 is essential for bulls to regain momentum.

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Newsletter: 13th Jun 2025

Torrent Powers Green Growth

Aaj Ka Bazaar

US markets closed higher on Thursday, led by strong gains in technology stocks, as optimism around Oracle’s robust cloud and AI outlook lifted investor sentiment. Oracle surged nearly 13% after signalling accelerated growth driven by AI-related demand, which also lifted other large-cap tech names like Microsoft and Nvidia. This tech-led rebound helped offset weakness in industrials, particularly Boeing, which faced pressure following recent safety concerns and lingering Middle East tension. However, sentiment shifted dramatically after market hours as reports emerged that Israel had launched targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear programme sites, marking a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions. The geopolitical shock triggered a risk-off wave in global markets, with oil prices jumping over 7%, gold rallying as investors scurry safety, and US equity futures slipping notably. Asian markets opened lower, with benchmarks like the Nikkei and Hang Seng declining, reflecting growing investor caution. Domestically, Indian markets are expected to follow global cues and open lower, with investors closely monitoring crude oil fluctuations and geopolitical developments. On the stock specific front, oil based stocks are likely to extend their decline, with the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, while Auto stocks are likely to be under scrutiny, after President Trump’s comment on raising auto tariffs very soon.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex 80,809.87 (-1.08%)

Nifty 5024,648.85 (-0.96%)

Bank Nifty55,458.95 (-1.11%)

Dow Jones42,352.09 (-1.45%)

Nasdaq 19,662.48 (0.24%)

FTSE 8,884.92 (0.23%)

Nikkei 22537,728.27 (-1.17%)

Hang Seng 23,866.86 (-0.71%)

Sector: Power

Torrent Power Secures Wind Project Investment

Torrent Power, through its subsidiary Torrent Green Energy, has won a 300 MW wind energy project from SECI (Solar Energy Corporation of India) under the Wind Tranche-XVIII bidding round. The company plans to invest around ₹2,650 crore to develop the project, which will supply electricity at ₹3.97 per unit. The project is expected to be completed within 24 months of signing the power purchase agreement (PPA). This win takes Torrent’s total renewable energy capacity under development to 3.3 gigawatts peak (GWp). The move aligns with both the company’s sustainability goals and the Indian government’s mission to reach 500 GW of non-fossil fuel power by 2030. This project also strengthens Torrent’s position in the renewable sector and reflects growing opportunities in India’s clean energy transition.

Why it Matters:

The 300 MW wind project win is a major step for Torrent Power as it expands its renewable energy portfolio and reinforces its position in India’s clean energy market. It aligns with the government’s target of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, pushing the country closer to its sustainability goals. The significant investment of ₹2,650 crore also highlights the company’s confidence in the long-term growth and potential of the wind energy sector.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BEL – 395.85 (2.18%)

ONGC– 249.81 (0.78%)

APOLLOHOSP – 7003.00 (0.09%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

KOTAKBANK– 2086.40 (-1.90%)

SBIN – 791.40 (-1.81%)

ULTRACEMCO – 11,119.00 (-1.80)

Sector : Consumer Electronics

Dixon Technologies has signed an agreement with Signify Innovations India to set up a joint venture (JV) for manufacturing lighting products and accessories. Both companies will own 50% each in the JV. As part of the deal, Dixon will transfer its existing lighting businessincluding its full stake in its subsidiary, Dixon Technologies Solutions Pvt Ltd to the new venture. This move allows Dixon to combine its manufacturing strength with Signify’s global expertise in lighting, helping both companies grow faster in the Indian market. The JV is expected to boost Dixon’s position in the lighting ecosystem and aligns with its long-term business strategy.

Why it Matters:

The joint venture between Dixon Technologies and Signify is a strategic move that strengthens Dixon’s presence in the fast-growing lighting market. By combining Dixon’s large-scale manufacturing capabilities with Signify’s global expertise in lighting innovation, the partnership enhances competitiveness in India’s original equipment manufacturing (OEM) space. It also supports Dixon’s broader goal of expanding into high-growth, technology-driven segments, positioning the company for long-term success in the electronics and lighting industry.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

U.S. stock futures dropped sharply on Thursday night after reports confirmed that Israel launched strikes on Iran. The U.S. clarified it wasn’t involved, but the news still shook global markets—S&P 500 futures fell 1.5%, Nasdaq 100 by 1.7%, and Dow Jones by 1.3%. Tensions remain high as Iran had earlier warned it would retaliate. Meanwhile, in the regular session, the S&P 500 ended higher thanks to Oracle’s strong AI-driven growth outlook. However, Boeing shares tumbled after an Air India 787 Dreamliner crashed shortly after takeoff, with over 200 feared dead—impacting GE Aerospace too. On the economic front, inflation data showed signs of cooling, with the May producer price index coming in lower than expected. The Fed is likely to keep rates steady for now, with potential cuts expected by September. Adding to market jitters, Trump hinted at new auto tariffs and criticized Fed Chair Powell for not cutting rates further.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 24800

Bank Nifty – 56000

Nifty 50 – 24970 (Pivot)

Support – 24,744, 24,599, 24,373

Resistance – 25,114, 25,340, 25,484

Bank Nifty – 56220 (Pivot)

Support – 55,830, 55,578, 55,187

Resistance – 56,472, 56,863, 57,115

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Printing Money Just Got Costlier

Did you know the RBI will spend ₹6,372.8 crore on security printing in 2024-25? That’s a 25% jump from last year’s ₹5,101.4 crore all driven by the rising demand for banknotes. Yes, even printing money comes with a heavy price tag!

Newsletter: 12th Jun 2025

Hindustan Copper Unveils ₹2,000 Cr Plan

Aaj Ka Bazaar

U.S. equity indices ended their winning streak on Wednesday, edging slightly lower as investor sentiment was dampened by escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the downside was partially offset by better-than-expected inflation data, which helped ease concerns about tariff-induced price pressures. Investors remain cautious, awaiting further clarity on the implementation of the framework agreed upon during the recent U.S.-China trade talks, which concluded with a tentative truce. In Asian markets, sentiment mirrored the global caution, with both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices trading in negative territory. The decline in the Hang Seng was led primarily by weakness in the information technology sector. On the domestic front, Indian markets are poised to open on a positive note, diverging from the broader global trend. On stock specific front, Zydus Lifesciences is expected to trade positively after receiving an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the U.S. FDA for its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturing facility in Gujarat.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex – 82,597.82 (0.10%)

 

Nifty 50 – 25,173.70 (0.11%)

 

Bank Nifty – 56,556.70 (0.18%)

 

Dow Jones – 42,736.19 (-0.30%)

 

Nasdaq – 19,615.88 (-0.50%)

 

FTSE – 8,864.35 (0.13%)

 

Nikkei 225 – 38,197.20 (-0.59%)

 

Hang Seng – 24,236.18 (-0.54%)

Sector: Industrial Product

Hind Copper Commits ₹2,000 Cr for Expansion

Hindustan Copper Ltd (HCL) plans to invest ₹2,000 crore over the next 5–6 years to boost its mining capacity, mainly at its Malanjkhand Copper Project in Madhya Pradesh. This move is part of HCL’s larger goal to triple its total ore production from 4 million tonnes to 12.2 million tonnes per year by FY2030-31. The focus is on expanding core operations, and this investment does not include the Rakha and Chapri mines in Jharkhand, which are being developed separately under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model. This expansion aligns with India’s push for more domestic metal production to reduce import dependence and support sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles that rely heavily on copper. For investors, this signals long-term growth potential for HCL, especially as global demand for copper continues to rise.

Why it Matters:

This expansion signals Hindustan Copper’s intent to meet rising copper demand driven by EVs and green energy. By tripling production, HCL aims to reduce India’s import reliance. For investors, it highlights strong long-term growth potential in a critical metal sector.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

ASIANPAINT – 2252.00 (1.96%)

ONGC – 252.16 (1.96%) 

SUNPHARMA – 1720.50 (1.77%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

INFY– 1601.90 (-1.79%)

HCLTECH – 1695.70 (-1.52%)

TATAMOTORS – 728.20 (-1.11)

Sector : Power

Waaree Energies Ltd has announced that its U.S.-based subsidiary, Waaree Solar Americas, received a major order to supply 599 MW of solar modules. The order came from a well-known U.S. company involved in building and operating large-scale solar and energy storage projects. The delivery of these modules is planned for 2026. This deal adds to Waaree’s growing global presence and strengthens its position in the U.S. solar market. As of the latest quarter, Waaree’s total order book stands at 25 GW, valued at around ₹47,000 crore. This shows strong demand for its products and ongoing expansion. For investors, it signals the company’s rising international footprint and long-term revenue visibility in the fast-growing clean energy space.

Why it Matters:

This order strengthens Waaree’s global presence, especially in the high-growth U.S. solar market. A ₹47,000 crore order book shows strong future revenue potential. For investors, it highlights confidence in Waaree’s role in the global clean energy transition.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian markets were mixed on Thursday due to concerns over trade tensions and geopolitical risks. U.S. President Trump warned of upcoming trade tariffs on key economies, dampening optimism from a recent U.S.-China trade framework, which lacked clear details. China’s main indexes dipped slightly, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5%. U.S. evacuations from Iraq and tension with Iran pushed oil prices up, affecting risk sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei and TOPIX dropped due to a stronger yen and weak tech stocks. On the positive side, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.2% from strong energy and gold stocks, and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.5% to a 3.5-year high, driven by political stability and hopes for earnings recovery. Singapore’s index also edged up 0.3%, and Indian Nifty futures pointed to a positive open. News of Reliance possibly investing in OpenAI added to the buzz around Indian markets. Overall, caution dominated due to uncertainty in trade and the Middle East.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 25100

Bank Nifty – 56000

 

Nifty 50 – 25148 (Pivot)

Support – 25,074, 25,007, 24,933

Resistance – 25,215, 25,289, 25,356

 

Bank Nifty – 56657 (Pivot)

Support – 56,311, 56,164, 55,928

Resistance – 56,695, 56,930, 57,078

Introducing India’s First AI Trading Bot Now on WhatsApp

just send “Hi” on WhatsApp to +91-7045576472 and start trading smarter.

Did you know?

Printing Money Just Got Costlier

Did you know the RBI will spend ₹6,372.8 crore on security printing in 2024-25? That’s a 25% jump from last year’s ₹5,101.4 crore all driven by the rising demand for banknotes. Yes, even printing money comes with a heavy price tag!