Weekly Report: 18th June 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The domestic market concluded the week on a high note, surging to fresh record highs, with both indices continuing their upward trajectory for the second consecutive week. During the week, the broader market rallied, surpassing the main indices and reaching new life highs. The Nifty settled above the 23,450 mark. India’s foreign exchange reserves surged to a new record high of $651.51 billion for the week ending May 31st, according to the RBI. India’s annual inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 4.75% for the month of May 2024, according to government data. India’s industrial production showed strong growth of 5% in April 2024. India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation rose to 2.61% in May 2024, marking a 14-month high. This increase contrasts with the sharp decline experienced in the same month last year when WPI recorded a reading   of -3.48%. Market expectations for May 2024 were around 3%, highlighting the actual inflation rate was slightly lower than anticipated but still notably high. Meanwhile on the global front, On expected lines, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% at the end of the two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The rhetoric of any change in monetary policy outcome being driven by incoming economic data, especially consumer price inflation and labour market data, still holds true.

Week Ahead

Eyes are set on the union budget in July, with rumors of a rural spending boost potentially perking up consumer stocks. Until then, expect some consolidation as foreign investors wait for cues. High   valuations may cap gains, but bargain hunters eye dips. This underlying support, along with steady mutual fund inflows, could keep the markets afloat. Investors remain watchful of foreign and          domestic flows to gauge sentiment, while crude oil prices remain a wild card, impacting inflation and central bank decisions.

Technical Overview
  • The week that went by was in stark contrast to its penultimate week as the 50 index remained in an extremely narrow range. In the week before, the markets reacted with high volatility swaying 2057 points.
  • On four out of the five trading sessions in the week gone by, the index came off by over 100 points from its day’s high.
  • The VIX index also cooled off by another 24% to 12.82.
  • While the price action closed near to record highs, it currently trades at a distance of 2.5% above the mean.
  • On the market breadth front, the populace of stocks trading above their 10 and 20 daily MA have entered the overbought territory. While those above 50 and 200 daily MA remain in the bullish zone above their 50% threshold.
  • The momentum market breadth remained positive with above average breadth volume citing modest accumulation.
  • The weekly RSI continued to show bearish divergence failing to mark fresh highs unlike the price action.
  • The Nifty 50, Midcap, and Smallcap indices are anticipated to be trading at stretched levels with positive sloping moving averages, culminating in a further sideways trend that will allow to  garner bullish strength in the intermediate term.
  • The overall bias remains positive. A sideway to mildly profit taking bouts will be an opportunity to buy the dip.
  • With a truncated week ahead, the markets would adjust to global trade setup on Tuesday. The zone  of 23550-23650 is anticipated to act as immediate resistance zone while the support comes in near 23150-23000. A breach below 22850 would warrant a caution.    

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Weekly Report: 10th June 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

With the conclusion of the Lok Sabha polls and the RBI meeting, attention now turns to global factors. Key areas to watch include the rupee’s movement against the dollar and crude oil prices. Additionally, investments by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (Dils) will remain under close observation. China’s inflation rate for May will be released on Wednesday, 12 June 2024. US core and consumer price inflation figures for May will be announced on Wednesday, 12 June 2024. US Fed interest rate decision and FOMC economic projections are scheduled for release on Wednesday, 12 June 2024.

Week Ahead

In a rather turbulent week, both the Sensex and Nifty experienced their most significant single-day drop in four years. However, despite this sudden downturn, the market has managed to rebound swiftly, reaching new highs once again, buoyed by BJP-led NDA’s re-election and global optimism. Ten out of thirteen sectoral indices ended on a positive note except Capital Goods, Oil & Gas and the Power sector. The Realty and IT sector stocks rose the most. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The equity market edged higher in four out of five trading sessions in this week. The Nifty settled above the 23,250 mark.

Technical Overview
  • The markets had an incredible eventful week as they reacted to exit polls and the general election results. Nifty50 gapped higher on Monday cheering the exit polls and scaled to fresh life-highs. It closed the first trading session of the week with a hanging man candle pattern and it succumbed to high volatility and severe selling pressure due to the announcement of election result. A remarkable recovery also followed bolstering a weekly closing with 759 points (3.4%) in green allowing the index to reclaim the ascending channel resistance once again. With this the price action now trades at a distance of nearly 3% away from the mean.
  • This also led to the formation of a weekly long legged hanging man candle and their occurrence near the high point have the potential to halt the ongoing uptrend.
  • The VIX came off 31.4% on a weekly basis.
  • The RSI on weekly timeframe confirmed a bearish divergence after failing to scale to new highs contrary to the price action.
  • While most sector’s uptrend remain under pressure, on the market breadth front, stocks trading above 10 daily MA surged into the overbought territory while those over their 20 and 50 daily MA have crossed above their 50% threshold. This also implicates early sign of mild profit-booking. The populace of stocks above their 200 daily MA are well above 65% threshold which is a positive sign. The momentum market breadth remained positive for majority of the week. The market breadth volume saw sharp rise on the exit poll shakeout and continued to remain volatile.
  • In anticipation of the index to trend sideways, the zone of 22620-22470 holds a very crucial support zone. Sustenance above this  supporting cushion will allow the index to garner bullish strength and a breach below this zone can invite further selling pressure. 

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Weekly Report: 03rd June 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian markets experienced significant volatility in the monthly F&O expiry week, with the benchmark indices declining in three out of five sessions. Despite the overall weakness in markets ahead of exit polls and actual election results, favourable monsoon forecasts and robust domestic institutional buying helped limit losses. All sectoral indices ended on a negative note except Capital Goods, with the IT index shedding the most. The large-cap stocks such as Info Edge India, Avenue Supermarts, Hindustan Zinc, Tech Mahindra, and Zydus Lifesciences fell 7-10%, whereas Adani Power, Adani Total Gas, One 97 Communications (Paytm), Divis Laboratories, and Mankind Pharma gained 4-7% 

Week Ahead

As we head into the crucial week, markets will react to a host of factors on Monday including exit polls, strong fourth quarter GDP data and the monthly automobile sales data. Thereafter, domestic markets will eagerly await the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections on June 4, 2024. The return of the ruling government would provide signal of economic policy continuity to markets. Additionally, the RBI will hold its MPC meeting this week, with the outcome scheduled on June 7, 2024. Following a strong GDP print on Friday, all eyes are set on any upward revision to the FY25 GDP forecast and more colour on the inflation trajectory going ahead. On the global front, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI and US non-farm payrolls in the upcoming week has the potential to sway market sentiment.

Technical Overview

The benchmark index began the week under selling pressure. With the upper perimeter of the rising channel acting as stiff resistance, the price action was coerced into forming an intermediate top. The formation of a bearish engulfing candle pattern on Monday prompted a respite in the upside, and then the index witnessed follow-through sessions on expanding volume as the selling pressure intensified. The index pared 426 points from its previous weekly close and added 2 distribution days during the week. It ended the week with an inside bar that called a halt to the four-day streak of lower lows after finding immediate support at the 20-day MA, which is currently trading near 22477. The VIX traded at elevated levels continuing its 5 weekly higher closing streak. The market breadth turned frail during the week. The number of stocks trading above the 10, 20, and 50 daily MA dropped below the 50% threshold, indicating a dodgy intermediate trend. The momentum market breadth also softened during the week. However, the market breadth volume witnessed a continuance in expansion, indicating selective accumulation. Technically, the 10 weekly MA and 50 daily MA are trading near 22444 and 22396 making it a crucial support zone. The index is anticipated to invite further selling pressure on a breach below this support zone on a closing basis. In the coming week, we anticipate volatility persisting ahead of the election results and reckon to restrain caution, control leverage, and apply risk management techniques.

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Weekly Report: 27th may 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By
  • In the week ended on Friday, 24 May 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 1,404.45 points or 1.90% to settle at 75,410.39. The Nifty 50 index dropped 455.10 points or 2.02% to close at 22,957.10.
  • The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 1.1% to end at 43,519.44.
  • The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.08% to close at 47,996.45.
Week Ahead
  • India GDP growth rate will be released on May 31,2024
  • US GDP growth rate QoQ 2nd estimate to be released on May 30, 2024.
  • Japan’s Consumer Confidence data for the May will be released on May 29, 2024.
Technical Overview

This week, the 50 index continued its momentum amidst the pullback rally from the channel’s support. It continued the streak of 10 higher high trading sessions and closed the truncated week in the upper quartile of the trading range after recording fresh life-highs of 23026. Volatility, too, remained at elevated levels. The price action is trading at a distance of 2.3% from the mean on weakening market breadth. The populace of stocks trading above 10 and 20 daily MAs dropped below their 50% threshold, indicating a frail intermediate trend, and the momentum breadth waned on expanding market breadth volume, indicating selective accumulation. The index is anticipated to consolidate as we approach the election result, and drawdowns restricting up to 50 daily MA currently trading near 22342 will act as an opportunity to capitalize on dips.

Sup: 22750-22500-22350

Res: 23050-23180-23380

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Weekly Report: 21st may 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By
  • In the week ended on Friday, 17 May 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex gained 1,252.56 points or 1.72% to settle at 73,917.03. The Nifty 50 index added 410.9 points or 1.86% to close at 22,466.
  • The BSE Mid-Cap index rallied 4.42% to end at 42,841.1. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 4.83% to close at 47,591.67.

Week Ahead
  • India’s HSBC composite PMI and Services PMI data for may will be released on 23rd May 2024
  • US Federal reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on 20th May 2024. The fed have decided to hold interest rates steady at high level for sixth month in a row. Interest is high and job market is strong so fed is not comfortable lowering rates yet. This means borrowing will likely to stay expensive for a while.
  • Japan’s balance of trade data is scheduled to be released on 22nd May 2024.
  • The US FOMC minutes are scheduled to be released on 22nd May 2024 providing insights into Fed’s recent interest rate decisions and shedding light on their prospective interest rate policies.
  • Japan’s Inflation rate for April will be disclosed on 24th May 2024.
Technical Overview

The 50 index commenced the week on a jittery note; however, after finding modest buying interest at the support of the rising channel, the price action witnessed a technical pullback to close in the higher quartile of the weekly trading range with a higher high structure. It closed 440 points higher from its penultimate weekly closing, marginally above the psychological mark of 22500. The week saw improving stock participation and refining momentum market breadth by expanding market breadth volume, indicating potential accumulation. Technically, the zone of 22500-520 holds an overhead resistance zone. It will be crucial for the index to decisively reclaim this zone on a closing basis to continue to attract bullish strength.

Supp: 22300-22150-21820

Res: 22520-22800-22900

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Weekly Report: 20th April 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By
  • In the week ended on Friday, 19 April 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 1156.57 points to settle at 73,388.33. The Nifty 50 index dropped 369.6 points or 1.64% to close at 22,149.80.
  • The BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 2.21% to end at 40,004.52.
  • The BSE Small-Cap index decreased 0.96% to close at 45,433.79. 
Week Ahead
  • On the macro front, India’s Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data for March is due on 15 April 2024.
  • Overseas, China’s will announced loan prime rate for 1 year and 5 year on 22 April 2024.
  • The Bank of Japan will announce its Interest rate decision on 26 April 2024.
Technical Overview

The benchmark index commenced the week with selling pressure and trended in that direction as the week progressed, breaching below the 20 and 50 DMA and adding a distribution day. However, the index pulled back into the rising channel on above-average volume on Friday. However, most broader indices and sectoral themes remain in a confirmed uptrend with worsening momentum. On the market breadth front, the populace of stocks trading above 20 & 50 DMA have dropped below 50%. On the momentum participation front, the numbers have seen a declining slope on subdued market breadth volume. This indicates an interim paucity of demand at higher levels. We reiterate market status as an uptrend under pressure and anticipate the index to trend in a broader range of 22775-21600 and offer a directional bias once either of the levels is taken out.

Supp: 21700-21600-21450

Res: 22330-22430-22500

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Weekly Report: 11th may 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By
  • In the week ended on Friday, 10 May 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 1,231.07 points or 1.67% to settle at 72,664.47. The Nifty 50 index dropped 388.10 points or 1.73% to close at 22,054.60.
  • The BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 3.27% to end at 41,027.75. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 3.80% to close at 45,396.99.
Week Ahead
  • India Economic data; Keep an eye out for india’s retail inflation figures for April. In March, inflation dipped to a 10-month low of 4.85%.
  • India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) data for April will be released. WPI rose slightly to 0.53% in March.
  • India’s trade balance data for April will be released. The trade deficit narrowed to $15.6 billion in March from a $18.1 billion gap a year earlier.
  • Overseas, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released. This data reflects inflation at the wholesale level in the US. A lower-than-expected number could signal easing inflationary pressures.
  • US Inflation & Retail Sales Figures will be released. These reports will provide a fresh look at consumer spending and inflation levels in the US economy.
  • Japan’s GDP Growth data will be released. This data will reveal the health of the Japanese economy.
  • China’s Industrial Production & Retail Sales will be released. These figures will offer insights into China’s economic activity.
Technical Overview

The 50 index wore a corrective look and closed the week 420 points lower than its previous closing below the 50-daily MA. The distribution day count increased to three during the week, and the uptrend remains under pressure. However, the price action managed to defend the 20-week MA coinciding with channel support and the 100 MA on the daily timeframe, making the zone of 22000-21900 an immediate and crucial support zone. The index is anticipated to see a mild technical pullback, with the zone of 22300-22500 acting as immediate resistance in the coming week.

Supp: 21930-21770-21650

Res: 22150-22300-22500

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Weekly Report: 06th may 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By
  • In the week ended on Friday, 3 May 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex gained 941.12 points to settle at 74,671.28.
  • The Nifty 50 index jumped 223.45 points or 1% to close at 22,643.40.
  • The BSE Mid-Cap index rallied 1.99% to end at 42,414.53. The BSE Small-Cap index shed 0.1% to close at 47,191.41.
Week Ahead
  • Overseas, the China will announce its trade figure for the month of April on 9th May, 2024.
  • The Germany will released its import and export numbers for April on 7th May, 2024.
  • The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on 9th May, 2024. The BoE maintained the Bank Rate at 5.25% during its March meeting, its highest level since 2008, as policymakers awaited clearer signals indicating that the country’s persistent inflationary pressures had subsided.
Technical Overview

The benchmark index commenced the truncated week on a positive note and consolidated higher, with the median of the ascending channel acting as immediate resistance. That, coupled with the pivotal resistance near 22775, caused the index to succumb to selling pressure and pare all gains. Yet, escaping a distribution day, it saw a muted weekly closing against a 33.8% rise in the VIX. The populace of stocks trading above 10DMA slipped below the 50% threshold while those above 20DMA continued to stand above the 50% threshold. The momentum market breadth remained mildly positive, while the market breadth volume indicated modest accumulation. Overall, the market breadth saw mildly weakening. However, the swing confidence remains high as most broader indices and sectorial themes remain in an uptrend with improving negative momentum. On the derivative front, 22800CE saw the highest build-up and addition of open interest, indicating stronger resistance. Technically, the zone of 22330-22290 acts as an immediate support zone and a weekly closing below it will invite further selling pressure.

Supp: 22290-22150-21860

Res: 22775-22900-23050

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Weekly Report: 27th April 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By
  • In the week ended on Friday, 26 April 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex gained 641.83 points to settle at 73,730.16.
  • The Nifty 50 index added 272.95 points or 1.23% to close at 22,419.95.
  • The BSE Mid-Cap index rallied 3.96% to end at 41,587.77. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 3.97% to close at 47,239.29.
Week Ahead
  • Overseas, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision after its two-day policy meeting on 1st May, 2024.
  • The China will announce the NBS Manufacturing PM for April on 30 April 2024. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April will also be declared on the same day.
  • The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April will be declared on 1 May 2024. The US ISM Services PMI for April will be declared on 3
  • May 2024. The US Non Farm Payrolls data for April will be announced on 3 May 2024. The US Unemployment Rate data for April will also be announced on the same day
Technical Overview

The The 50 index commenced the week on a gap-up opening, reclaiming the 50DMA following a knee-jerk reaction witnessed during the closing of the penultimate week. The price action trended in the positive direction to close 1.2% higher on a weekly basis, while the VIX plummeted 18.8%. Most broad and sectorial indices are in a confirmed uptrend with improving momentum. On the market breadth front, the populace of stocks trading above 20 and 50DMA are well above the 50% threshold, indicating positive participation of stocks. The momentum breadth remained positive on subdued market breadth volume, indicating lower accumulation than in the previous upswings. Technically, the price action has an immediate support zone from 22300-22230, and sustenance above this zone will allow the index to continue to attract bullish momentum.

Supp: 21900-21650-21450

Res: 22050-22380-22525

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Weekly Report: 13th April 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By
  •  In the week ended on Friday, 12 April 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 3.32 points to settle at 74,244.90. The Nifty 50 index added 5.7 points or 0.03% to close at 22,519.40.
  • The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 0.19% to end at 40,909.03.
  • The BSE Small-Cap index decreased 0.35% to close at 45,872.07.
Week Ahead
  • On the macro front, India’s Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data for March is due on 15 April 2024.
  • Overseas, China’s first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will be announced on 16 April 2024.
  • Japan will announce inflation rate for March on 19 April 2024. US Retail Sales data for March will be declared on 15 April 2024.
Technical Overview

On the price action front, the 50-index commenced the week on a strong note, closing at an all-time high. The index then succumbed to selling pressure as the truncated week progressed and closed in the lower quartile of the trading range adding a distribution day on Friday. It, however, closed 5 points higher than the previous week’s closing. While most indices and sectors remain in a confirmed uptrend on improving momentum, the market breadth pertaining to momentum participation stocks saw a downward-slopping trajectory for the week on subdued market breadth volume. This potentially indicates an interim paucity of demand at higher levels. We anticipate the index to trend sideways unless it decisively reclaims the all-time high mark while continuing to offer opportunities in selected pockets.

Sup: 22500-22300-22100

Res: 22775-22860-23000 

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