Weekly Report: 29th Sep 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian equity market ended the week with sharp losses, declining for the sixth straight session. The fall was triggered by global uncertainty, panic over the sudden $100,000 H-1B visa fee announced by the US, and weakness in IT and pharma stocks. Sentiment weakened further after US President Donald Trump declared a 100% tariff on branded drug imports, effective October 1, 2025. Sluggish domestic business activity and continued FII selling also weighed on markets. According to flash survey data released by HSBC on Tuesday, business activity in India moderated slightly in September. The Flash India Manufacturing PMI Output Index eased to 62.7 from 63.7 in August, while the broader Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to 58.5 from 59.3. Globally, China’s central bank kept the loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. The one-year LPR was maintained at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR remained at 3.5%. This move came after the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut last week. Meanwhile, President Trump’s immigration crackdown on work visas has continued to keep market sentiment cautious.

Week Ahead

Domestic equities enter the coming week with several key domestic and global economic indicators likely to steer market sentiment. Investors will keep a close watch on India’s industrial output data, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy decision, fresh PMI readings, as well as global inflation prints and central bank cues. However, volatility may remain amid foreign fund flows and global uncertainties. On the domestic front, industrial production data is scheduled for release on Monday, 29 September 2025, followed by the RBI’s interest rate decision on 1 October 2025. The central bank had maintained the repo rate at 5.50% during its August meeting, keeping a neutral stance, after a larger-than-expected 50 bps in June. HSBC’s September manufacturing PMI data will also be published on 1 October 2025. Globally, China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI will be released on Tuesday, 30 September 2025. On Wednesday, 1 October 2025, the Euro Area’s consumer price inflation figures and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. Lastly, the US unemployment rate data for September will be released on Friday, 3 October 2025.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty has been under pressure since last Friday and has already lost nearly 800 points from its recent swing high near 25,450. The inability to sustain higher levels has shifted the tone towards weakness.

  • The index has slipped below the rising channel support and failed to defend the crucial 25,000 mark. This has changed the short-term structure from bullish to corrective.

  • Nifty has broken 24,750, which was acting as a key support. The next strong zone is at 24,500–24,400. A bounce may emerge from here, but if these levels fail, the downside could extend further.

  • On the upside, 25,000 now turns into immediate resistance. Sustaining above 25,000 will be essential to ease the pressure. Above that, 25,200–25,400 would be the next hurdles.

  • The index has slipped below the 20-day EMA and is hovering near the 50-day EMA. A close below the 50-day EMA will further weaken sentiment.

  • The decline has come on higher volumes, which points to distribution and selling pressure from stronger hands.

  • The RSI has dropped to 39, indicating bearish momentum, though not yet in oversold territory. Some relief bounce is possible, but the broader setup stays cautious.

  • ADX is at 18, which signals a weak trend. This means the fall is more of a corrective phase / profit booking rather than the start of a strong bearish trend. Unless ADX rises above 25–30, sustained trending moves will be difficult.

  • The MACD histogram is in negative territory, showing bearish bias, but without strong conviction yet.

  • Conclusion:
    Nifty has broken below the 25,000 psychological level as well as 24,750, and this keeps the market under pressure. Going forward, weakness may continue towards 24,500–24,400, which are crucial support levels. Unless Nifty reclaims and sustains above 25,000, the sentiment will remain cautious. A sustained move above 25,000 would signal strength returning, while a breach below 24,400 could extend the weakness further.

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Weekly Report: 22nd Sep 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The domestic equity benchmarks saw significant gains this week, with declines occurring only on Monday and Friday, while the other three days closed in positive territory. The market was buoyed by optimism around India-U.S. trade talks and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 0.25% interest rate cut. Investor confidence was also supported by recent GST reforms and India’s return to positive wholesale inflation, which eased deflation concerns. In the week ended on Friday, 19 September 2025, The Nifty 50 index advanced 213.05 points or 0.85% to settle at 25,327.05. On the economic front, India’s inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) index rose to 0.52% in August 2025, marking a return to positive territory after two consecutive months of deflation.  On the global front, The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4%–4.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the decision as a “risk management cut” rather than a response to underlying economic weakness.

Week Ahead

The Indian equities market is likely to see a cautiously positive week ahead, with the Nifty maintaining support above important moving averages. A key resistance level to watch is around 25,500, and a strong breakout beyond this level could open the path to retesting recent highs near 25,669. On the downside, immediate support lies near 25,000, which should act as a solid floor for the index. Market momentum is supported by the recent US Federal Reserve rate cut, improving earnings expectations, and progress in India-US trade negotiations. However, volatility may persist amid continued foreign fund movements, upcoming IPOs, and global cues. A prudent approach would be to look for buying opportunities on dips, while staying alert to any sudden market shifts. The coming week holds several key economic releases for India that could influence market sentiment.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty has managed to scale above the psychological 25,000 mark, but sustaining here is the real test. Buyers have shown strength on dips, yet sellers are active near resistance zones. Holding above 25,500 will be key to extending the upmove.
  • The index remains inside a rising channel, reflecting an ongoing short-term bullish structure.
  • However, repeated tests near resistance highlight that momentum is slowing slightly. A clean break above 25,500 would reaffirm strength, while weakness below key supports could signal a pause.
  • Immediate support is now seen at 25,200. If Nifty slips below this, momentum will fade and could trigger profit booking.
  • Deeper supports are placed around 24,800–24,500, where stronger demand is expected to step in.
  • On the upside, 25,500 is the hurdle to watch. Sustaining above this opens the way towards 25,800–26,000. If the index fails here, sellers could push it into a sideways-to-corrective phase.\
  • The index is trading comfortably above its 20-day EMA, showing the near-term bias is still positive. A close below the 20-day EMA, however, could invite weakness and accelerate profit booking.
  • Volumes have picked up during upswings, showing genuine buying interest. But the recent sessions also reflect some distribution near the top, suggesting a tug of war between bulls and bears at higher levels.
  • The RSI stands around 63, indicating healthy but not overbought momentum. However, if the index fails to hold 25,500 and RSI starts slipping, it would confirm fading strength.
  • The ADX at 21 shows the trend is still gaining traction. With +DI holding above –DI, bulls remain in control. A drop below 18 on ADX would, however, confirm weakening momentum.
  • The MACD remains in the green, supporting a bullish stance. But the histogram bars show signs of flattening, which is an early hint that momentum may cool off if price fails to clear resistance zones.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty requires to hold above 25,500 to extend the upside towards 25,800–26,000. If it fails to sustain these levels, some profit booking is likely. On the downside, 25,200 is the first support, and a break below this would mean loss of momentum, exposing the index to 24,800–24,500 levels. Overall, bias stays positive as long as 25,200 is protected, but strength only builds if 25,500 is conquered convincingly.

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Weekly Report: 15th Sep 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity benchmarks higher for the week, primarily driven by improved investor sentiment following recent GST reforms, hopes of easing India-U.S. relations and a potential U.S. Fed rate cut next week. During the week, Nifty 50 climbed 1.37% to settle at 24,114, while the Sensex gained 1.38%, ending at 81,904.70. Gains were largely driven by positive global cues and a domestic boost after Fitch Ratings raised India’s FY26 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 6.5%, reinforcing confidence in the country’s economic resilience. Investor sentiment remained buoyant despite mid-week volatility, particularly in financial stocks. Globally, eurozone inflation rose to 2.1% in August, slightly above the ECB’s target, while Germany’s inflation matched estimates at 2.1%. In Asia, China’s consumer prices fell 0.4% YoY, while Japan’s Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% on stronger domestic demand. In the U.S., CPI rose 2.7% YoY in August, with core inflation accelerating to 3.1%, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut amid labor market weakness.

Week Ahead

Next week, investor sentiment will be guided by both domestic data releases and key global developments. On the domestic front, the key highlight will be the August inflation rate, scheduled for release on Friday, September 5, after July CPI fell to a near eight-year low of 1.55%. Globally, China’s trade balance data will release on Monday, September 8, followed by release of Chinese inflation rate on Wednesday, September 10. In the U.S., the inflation rate for August 2025 will be released on September 11, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This will be followed by the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading for September, due on Friday, September 12. These indicators are expected to influence expectations around the future trajectory of global interest rates and overall market direction.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty’s 1% rise marks a psychological shift after relentless declines. This may trigger short covering and tentative buying interest, but the magnitude of the bounce is still small compared to the prior fall.
  • The index has shown signs of stabilising near the lower boundary of the falling channel and is now testing the upper channel line. A decisive breakout would open the door for a more meaningful recovery toward higher resistance levels.
  • Buyers stepped in near 24,350 a previously identified support level. This reaction reinforces its importance; however, repeated testing could weaken it, so a sustained close above 24,500 remains key.
  • Price is attempting to challenge the 20-day EMA, which has acted as dynamic resistance during the downtrend. A clean close above this would improve the short-term technical tone and allow for an upside push toward 24,800.
  • The MACD histogram has narrowed on the negative side, hinting at reduced selling momentum. The MACD line, however, still remains below its signal line suggesting that bullish conviction is still developing.
  • The ADX remains elevated at 33, indicating the downtrend is still technically strong. But if ADX starts to turn lower while price moves higher, it could confirm that bearish momentum is losing steam.
  • The RSI has risen from near-oversold territory toward the mid-40s, showing improved buying strength. This shift is constructive, but crossing above 50 would be the first sign that bulls are regaining control.
  • A notable rise in volumes accompanied Friday’s gain, suggesting the move was supported by stronger participation a bullish hint if it continues in the coming sessions.
  • The first upside hurdle is 24,800, followed by the psychologically and technically significant 25,000 level. If these levels are reclaimed, the medium-term outlook would shift from cautious to neutral.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty has finally snapped its six-week losing streak with a modest bounce, hinting at early stabilisation. Holding above 24,500 will be critical for further upside toward 24,800–25,000. A close below 24,350, however, could quickly reinstate selling pressure and target lower supports.

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Weekly Report: 08th Sep 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian equity markets ended the week on a positive note, with both the Nifty and Sensex crossing key psychological levels of 24,700 and 80,700, respectively. The strong momentum was underpinned by robust domestic economic data, including a 7.8% GDP growth print and the highest PMI readings in years, which reinforced optimism around sustained growth in manufacturing and services. Investor sentiment was further buoyed by the government’s sweeping GST rate cuts on essential goods, two-wheelers, and education items, which are expected to boost consumption. The sentiment in the US also remained positive, with weaker labor data supporting participant’s probability of rate cut in the upcoming Fed meet. In Europe, inflation in the eurozone edged up slightly to 2.1% in August, with core inflation steady at 2.3%, keeping the European Central Bank’s policy path in focus. In Asia, China’s factory activity showed signs of stabilization with private PMI data improving, though official readings still suggested contraction.

Week Ahead

Indian equities are set to begin the upcoming week on a cautiously optimistic note, with sentiment supported by last week’s GST-led tax relief measures and continued resilience in macroeconomic indicators. The government’s policy push through tax and liquidity measures is being viewed as structural support for growth, though the impact is expected to unfold gradually. In the week ahead, investors are likely to track both domestic and global data releases closely. In India, the August inflation print (due Friday, September 12) will be a key focus, with consensus pointing toward a further moderation after July’s 1.55%, which had already marked a ninth straight monthly decline. Overall, while domestic reforms and supportive global cues provide a constructive setup, investors may stay cautious amid evolving Fed signals and international trade uncertainties.

Technical Overview
  • The index witnessed selling pressure after failing to sustain above the 24,800–24,900 zone and has once again slipped near the 24,700 mark. The index continues to struggle at higher levels, highlighting that bears are still holding an edge.
  • Immediate support lies at 24,500, and a breakdown below this level could extend the fall towards 24,300. If 24,300 is breached, the index may further test the 24,000–23,950 zone.
  • On the upside, the index faces stiff resistance between 24,800–25,000. A decisive move above this zone is required for bulls to regain control and attempt a recovery towards 25,300–25,500. Until then, any bounce will be considered a short-covering move within a weak structure.
  • From a trend perspective, Nifty continues to form lower highs, while support retests remain frequent, confirming a fragile setup.
  • The index is currently trading near the 10 and 20-day EMAs, reinforcing the near-term bearish tone.
  • The Parabolic SAR continues to signal selling dominance as the dots remain placed above the price action.
  • Momentum indicators are also cautious. RSI is hovering around the 48 zone, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that strength is still missing. A slide below 45 could trigger renewed weakness.
  • ADX is currently at 24.6, suggesting the trend is developing but yet to gain full strength. If it rises further along with price weakness, the downtrend could accelerate.
  • The MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram widening again indicating that bearish momentum is not fading yet.
  • Volume activity also shows higher participation during declines compared to upswings, suggesting that institutional selling pressure remains intact while buying interest is selective and short-lived.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty continues to remain under pressure, with 24,500 as the immediate support and 25,000 as the critical hurdle. Below 24,500, weakness may extend towards 24,300–24,000, while only a breakout above 25,000 will revive bullish sentiment. Until then, range-bound moves with a negative bias remain likely.

 

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Weekly Report: 01st Sep 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Domestic equity markets ended the truncated week with sharp losses, weighed down by renewed trade tensions after the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on key Indian exports. The move sparked concerns over economic fallout and pressured investor sentiment. Broader markets underperformed the frontline indices, with investors also keeping a close watch on crude oil prices and FII fund flows. For the week, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 1,497.20 points (1.84%) to settle at 79,809.65, while the Nifty 50 tumbled 443.25 points (1.78%) to close at 24,426.85. The weakness was more pronounced in the broader markets, with the BSE Mid-Cap index plunging 2.72% to 44,642.31, and the BSE Small-Cap index slipping 2.93% to 51,449.20. On the macro front, India’s industrial production growth quickened to 3.5% in July, compared to 1.5% in June, as per data from the National Statistical Office (NSO).

Week Ahead

The upcoming week is expected to be event-heavy, with key domestic and global data releases likely to drive market sentiment. In India, auto sales numbers, along with PMI readings and inflation data, will be closely tracked for signals on economic momentum. On the global front, multiple PMI prints and other crucial macroeconomic indicators are scheduled, with particular focus on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which will provide cues on the strength of the labor market and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Investors will also remain vigilant on geo-political developments, given their potential to impact risk appetite. Key releases to watch include: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings (July 2025) – due Wednesday, September 3. Job openings in June had dropped by 275,000 to 7.437 million, below expectations of 7.55 million, keeping labor market softness in focus. India’s Inflation Rate (August 2025) – scheduled for release on Friday, which will be crucial for RBI’s policy trajectory.

Technical Overview
  •  Nifty has slipped below the crucial 24,500 support, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant in the near term. The immediate base now rests at 24,300, and a sustained break below this could drag the index towards 24,000.
  • On the other side, the upside remains capped, with 24,700–25,000 acting as a strong resistance zone. Until Nifty crosses this band decisively, any bounce will largely be considered a pullback within a weak setup.
  • From a structural point of view, the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows, which confirms that the short-term trend is tilted downward.
  • Nifty is also trading below the short-term moving averages (10 & 20 EMA), adding further weight to the bearish bias.
  • The Parabolic SAR dots are placed above price, suggesting that the downward pressure is intact, and trend reversal is yet to be confirmed.
  • Momentum indicators also highlight caution. The RSI has slipped to 39, below the neutral 50 mark, signaling weakening strength in the index. A dip below 35 could accelerate the selling pressure.
  • Meanwhile, the ADX reading is 24.41, which shows that a trend is developing but not yet extremely strong; however, if this rises further with falling price, the downtrend may strengthen further.
  • The MACD indicator is trading in negative territory, with a widening histogram, clearly reflecting bearish momentum. This suggests that rallies will likely be sold into unless a strong crossover emerges.
  • Volumes have also picked up during recent declines, showing distribution activity—an indication that institutional participation on the sell side is increasing, while buying conviction remains weak.
  • Looking ahead, the outlook for Nifty remains bearish to sideways as long as it trades below 24,500. The key level to watch is 24,300—a breakdown here could invite further declines towards 24,000. On the contrary, only a sustained move above 24,700–25,000 would shift momentum in favor of the bulls and hint at a recovery.
  • Conclusion:Nifty is under pressure with bias tilted to the downside. 24,300 is the immediate level to track, while 25,000 will be the hurdle for bulls. Until either side is decisively taken out, expect range-bound movement with a negative undertone.

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Weekly Report: 25th Aug 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Domestic equity benchmarks ended their six-day winning streak, weighed down by profit booking and lingering global uncertainties. Earlier in the week, markets had seen strong gains supported by optimism over upcoming GST reforms and robust domestic data, including a sharp rise in India’s PMI and steady core sector growth, which had boosted sentiment. However, mixed global cues from major economies and central banks led to some hesitation, triggering a pullback by the week’s end. India’s Manufacturing PMI, covering new orders, employment, and inventories, edged up to 59.8. Revised core sector growth for June 2025 stood at 2.2%, indicating a steady industrial trend in the early months of the fiscal year. Globally, the US Census Bureau data released Friday showed retail sales rose 0.5% in July over the prior month. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment weakened in August, declining for the first time in four months as long-term inflation expectations rose. Additionally, new applications for jobless benefits in the US climbed by the most in nearly three months last week.

Week Ahead

Indian equities head into the coming week on a cautiously constructive note, supported by steady domestic conditions and resilience in select sectors. With a relatively light local economic calendar, near-term volatility from domestic data releases is expected to remain limited. However, investor focus will largely shift to global developments. In the US, several key macroeconomic indicators are due, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. Any significant surprises on this front may ripple into emerging markets, including India, by influencing global risk sentiment and foreign capital flows. On the domestic front, India’s Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI will be released on Thursday, August 21. Globally, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates on Wednesday, August 20, followed by July 2025 FDI (YTD) YoY data on Friday, August 22. In the US, New Home Sales data for July is scheduled for release on Monday, August 25, while the Core PCE Price Index for July, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday, August 29.  

Technical Overview
  • Nifty has once again failed to sustain above the 25,000 mark on a weekly basis. This highlights the fact that every attempt to climb higher is met with selling pressure, showing that this level has become a psychological as well as technical hurdle.
  • The recent price action indicates a sideways-to-negative bias, with higher levels unable to attract fresh buying. Unless momentum improves, the short-term trend may continue to drift with a downward tilt.
  • The zone of 25,150–25,300 remains the immediate ceiling for the index. A breakout and close above this range would be a meaningful signal of strength and could shift sentiment back in favour of the bulls.
  • A decisive close above 25,300 would change the entire picture, potentially opening the way for 25,650–26,000 in the coming sessions. Until such a breakout occurs, the market may continue to consolidate with a mild downward bias.
  • On the downside, support is placed at 24,600–24,400, which has so far helped the index avoid deeper losses. If these levels hold, the index can remain in consolidation; if broken, the structure will weaken further.
  • A breach of 24,400 can open the gates for a sharper fall towards 23,780, which is a crucial demand zone from earlier price action. This would confirm that sellers have regained firm control over the near-term trend.
  • The RSI is hovering near 50, reflecting indecision and lack of clear direction. This neutral reading suggests that traders are waiting for a breakout from the current range before committing strongly on either side.
  • The MACD continues to trade in a negative crossover, signalling that downward pressure still persists. Unless this crossover turns positive, rallies are likely to face selling pressure near resistance levels.
  • The ADX at 24.5 indicates a weak trend environment, meaning that moves are likely to remain range-bound for now. A rising ADX above 30 would be needed to confirm a strong trending move in either direction.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty has finally snapped its six-week losing streak with a modest bounce, hinting at early stabilisation. Holding above 24,500 will be critical for further upside toward 24,800–25,000. A close below 24,350, however, could quickly reinstate selling pressure and target lower supports.

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Weekly Report: 19th Aug 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity benchmarks higher for the week, snapping a six-week losing streak, supported by positive global cues and easing inflation data. During the week, Nifty 50 climbed 1.10% to settle at 24,631.30, while the Sensex gained 0.92%, ending at 80,597.66. Gains were led by optimism around softening CPI and WPI readings, despite mid-week pressure from financial stocks. However, broader market indices underperformed, with both mid- and small-cap indices ending in the red. Domestically, India’s retail inflation dropped to 1.55% in July, the lowest since June 2017, while wholesale inflation stayed negative at -0.58% due to falling food and energy prices. However, the trade deficit widened to $27.35 billion from $18.78 billion in June, driven by weaker exports and higher imports. Globally, in the U.K., Q2 GDP grew 0.3%, beating expectations, though labor market indicators showed weakening job vacancies. Japan’s manufacturing sentiment improved following a U.S. trade agreement, while Australia’s jobless rate edged down to 4.2%. In the U.S., CPI rose 2.7% YoY in July, with core inflation accelerating to 3.1%.

Week Ahead

Next week, investor sentiment will be shaped largely by global cues, with limited domestic triggers on the calendar. On the domestic front, the key highlight will be the July unemployment rate, due on August 18. Additionally, PMI data for August—covering manufacturing, services, and the composite index—will be released on August 21. Globally, China will announce its Loan Prime Rates for the 1-year and 5-year tenors on August 20. In the US, Building Permits and Housing Starts data for July will be released on August 19, followed by the FOMC Minutes on August 20. Existing Home Sales data for July will be released on August 21.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty’s 1% rise marks a psychological shift after relentless declines. This may trigger short covering and tentative buying interest, but the magnitude of the bounce is still small compared to the prior fall.
  • The index has shown signs of stabilising near the lower boundary of the falling channel and is now testing the upper channel line. A decisive breakout would open the door for a more meaningful recovery toward higher resistance levels.
  • Buyers stepped in near 24,350 a previously identified support level. This reaction reinforces its importance; however, repeated testing could weaken it, so a sustained close above 24,500 remains key.
  • Price is attempting to challenge the 20-day EMA, which has acted as dynamic resistance during the downtrend. A clean close above this would improve the short-term technical tone and allow for an upside push toward 24,800.
  • The MACD histogram has narrowed on the negative side, hinting at reduced selling momentum. The MACD line, however, still remains below its signal line suggesting that bullish conviction is still developing.
  • The ADX remains elevated at 33, indicating the downtrend is still technically strong. But if ADX starts to turn lower while price moves higher, it could confirm that bearish momentum is losing steam.
  • The RSI has risen from near-oversold territory toward the mid-40s, showing improved buying strength. This shift is constructive, but crossing above 50 would be the first sign that bulls are regaining control.
  • A notable rise in volumes accompanied Friday’s gain, suggesting the move was supported by stronger participation a bullish hint if it continues in the coming sessions.
  • The first upside hurdle is 24,800, followed by the psychologically and technically significant 25,000 level. If these levels are reclaimed, the medium-term outlook would shift from cautious to neutral.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty has finally snapped its six-week losing streak with a modest bounce, hinting at early stabilisation. Holding above 24,500 will be critical for further upside toward 24,800–25,000. A close below 24,350, however, could quickly reinstate selling pressure and target lower supports.

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Weekly Report: 11th Aug 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The domestic equity benchmarks ended the week with significant losses, weighed down by renewed global trade tensions after President Trump announced a doubling of U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, sparking concerns over a potential export impact. The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, along with its neutral policy stance, failed to boost investor sentiment amid persistent foreign portfolio outflows. Additionally, weak Q1 earnings from several major companies further dampened market morale. The overall tone remained cautious. Notably, the broader market underperformed, adding to the week’s bearish undertone. In the week ended on Friday, 08 August 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 742.12 points or 0.92% to settle at 79,857.79. The Nifty 50 index slipped 202.05 points or 0.82% to settle at 24,363.30.

Week Ahead

Investors are expected to closely monitor international trade developments after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a nearly 50% tariff on Indian imports. The move, which marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the two countries, has raised concerns over retaliatory measures from India and potential disruptions across sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services. With FIIs exiting, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have stepped in as stabilisers, absorbing part of the selling pressure, but concerns remain over whether this support will hold if outflows accelerate. Key major events next week include the consumer price inflation rate for the month of July, which will be unveiled on August 12. The wholesale price inflation figure for July 2025 will be made public on August 14. On the global front, China’s inflation rate for July 2025 will be released on August 9. The U.S. inflation rate for July 2025 will be made public on August 12. 

Technical Overview
  • The index has now closed in the red for six straight weeks — an event not seen in the past 5 years. Such a persistent losing streak indicates strong supply and lack of buying conviction, often linked to macro headwinds or sector-wide weakness.
  • Nifty has slipped below the rising channel that had guided the rally for months. This structural break shifts the market bias from “buy on dips” to “sell on rallies,” indicating a potential medium-term downtrend unless the breakout level is reclaimed.
  • The index is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day EMAs. These moving averages, which earlier acted as dynamic support, have now turned into strong resistance zones. Price rejection near these levels reinforces the bearish stance.
  • The next significant horizontal support sits at 24,000. A decisive breach below this could trigger deeper declines toward 23,800 or even 23,500. This level is psychologically important as well, being a round number where bargain hunters may attempt entries.
  • The MACD line remains well below its signal line, with the histogram widening on the negative side. This signals strong downside momentum and no early signs of reversal in sight.
  • The ADX is at 30, a level that clearly signals a well-established and strong trend. With the -DI line well above the +DI line, this strength is currently in favor of sellers.
  • The Relative Strength Index is at 33.58, holding just above the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests persistent weakness, but also that an oversold bounce could occur if selling becomes too stretched.
  • Price action is entirely below the Ichimoku Cloud, with Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen both pointing down. The cloud ahead is red and flat, indicating lack of bullish momentum and possible sideways-to-lower price action in the near term.The broken 25,000 mark now acts as a ceiling. This range overlaps with the 50 EMA and prior breakdown point, making it a critical hurdle for any recovery. A weekly close above this zone would be the first sign of bullish repair.

 Conclusion:
Nifty is in a historically rare stretch of weakness, having fallen six weeks in a row for the first time in half a decade. The breakdown below 25,000 confirms the shift in sentiment, with sellers dominating rallies. Unless 25,000–25,200 is regained on a closing basis, the path of least resistance remains lower, with 24,000 being the next crucial support to watch. Traders should remain cautious and align with the prevailing trend until a reversal pattern emerges.

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Weekly Report: 04th Aug 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity benchmarks closed the week with sharp losses as escalating geopolitical tensions and trade concerns weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The announcement of a 25% US tariff on Indian goods and uncertainty surrounding India’s procurement from Russia dampened risk appetite, leading to broad-based declines across large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap indices. Despite mid-week support from value buying in blue chips and upbeat earnings from select heavyweights like L&T, the overall market mood remained cautious. Macroeconomic positives, including an IMF upgrade to India’s growth forecast and a rebound in manufacturing activity, were largely overshadowed by global volatility, tariff shocks, and weak cues from international markets, particularly China and the US.

Week Ahead

In the upcoming week, markets are expected to remain on edge amid global trade tensions and a flurry of high-impact economic events. Investor focus will largely pivot toward the RBI monetary policy decision, due Wednesday, especially after its surprise 50 bps rate cut in May. With borrowing costs at their lowest since August 2022, market participants will watch closely for further cues on the central bank’s policy stance amid evolving growth-inflation dynamics. On the data front, India’s     Services and Composite PMI readings for July will be released, offering insights into domestic demand conditions following signs of a mild slowdown from June’s highs. Meanwhile, a busy earnings calendar featuring names like SBI, Tata Motors, LIC, and Adani Ports will also drive stock-specific movements. Globally, the release of China’s Caixin Services PMI and trade data will be key, especially given recent signs of weakness in the country’s services sector. In the US, factory orders and ISM Services PMI data for June and July respectively, along with crude inventory updates, will guide sentiment. Together, these indicators will shape the broader market narrative around global demand, trade imbalances, and monetary policy expectations across key economies.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty has now declined for five straight weeks — a rare occurrence that signals persistent selling pressure. This pattern reflects broader risk-off sentiment and consistent profit booking at higher levels.
  • The rising channel that has guided the Nifty higher over the past few months has been broken decisively on the downside. This invalidates the prior uptrend structure and often marks a change in market behavior.
  • Nifty has convincingly slipped below its 50-day exponential moving average. This key average, which often acts as a support in uptrends, is now likely to act as resistance.
  • Price is approaching a well-established horizontal support zone near 24,400. This level has previously acted as a pivot. A close below this could lead to further decline toward 24,000 and even 23,800 in the near term.
  • The MACD indicator has given a clean bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram has turned negative. This typically marks a momentum shift from bullish to bearish and suggests increased likelihood of sustained downside.
  • The ADX is currently at 13.09, indicating a low-strength trend. While this doesn’t confirm a strong downtrend yet, it does suggest a lack of conviction on either side.
  • The Relative Strength Index is currently at 36 — a bearish reading. It has broken its prior support zone around 45 and is pointing downward. A fall below 30 would indicate oversold conditions.
  • Price is now trading below the cloud, while both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are sloping downward. The Senkou Span A and B are flat, suggesting a lack of upward momentum.
  • Despite intraday recoveries, the index is consistently facing rejection in the 25,000–25,200 range. This zone aligns with the 50 EMA and previous breakdown levels. A breakout above this band with strong follow-through is essential.
  • Conclusion:
    To sum up, Nifty is under clear technical pressure. Multiple indicators — from trendlines and moving averages to oscillators like RSI and MACD — point to a weakening structure. If the index breaches 24,400 decisively, expect further drift toward 24,000–23,800. For any signs of revival, bulls need to reclaim 25,000–25,200 on a closing basis. Until then, the risk remains tilted to the downside, and positional traders should maintain a cautious outlook.

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Weekly Report: 28th Jul 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity indices ended the week in the red, weighed down by disappointing earnings, global uncertainties, and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows. The week started on a strong note, supported by upbeat Q1 results. However, momentum weakened midweek due to weaker-than-expected IT earnings and stalled US-India trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline. Consequently, the Nifty slipped below the 24,850 level, with broader indices underperforming sharply. On a positive note, India and the UK signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement on Thursday, aimed at boosting annual bilateral trade by $34 billion. As part of the deal, India will reduce tariffs on 90% of goods imported from the UK, while the UK will eliminate duties on 99% of Indian exports. The agreement is expected to benefit key sectors such as leather, textiles, electronics, and software, and also encourage fresh investments between the two countries.

Week Ahead

The domestic equity market may witness increased volatility in the coming week, influenced by a combination of global cues and the ongoing Q1FY26 corporate earnings season. Countries are expected to intensify trade negotiations with the US ahead of President Trump’s self-imposed August 1 deadline. On the domestic front, key economic data releases include India’s industrial production figures on Monday (July 28), the government’s fiscal balance for June on Thursday (July 31), and the July manufacturing PMI on Friday (August 1). Globally, China will release the NBS Manufacturing PMI on Thursday (July 31) and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday (August 1). In the US, numbers relating to job openings for June, GDP growth rate figures, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, all expected on Tuesday (July 29). Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index will be released on Thursday (July 31), followed by non-farm payroll data, the unemployment rate, and the manufacturing PMI on Friday (August 1).

Technical Overview
  • Nifty has posted four consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing bearish sentiment. The failure to attract sustained buying even after brief recoveries suggests that the short-term uptrend has likely paused.
  • The 25,000–25,200 range has now emerged as a strong supply zone. Despite multiple intraday attempts, the index has been unable to hold above this psychological level.
  • Nifty is currently hovering near a key short-term support at 24,500, marked by a previous demand zone and horizontal support. A breakdown below this may open the door toward the broader support cluster between 24,100–23,900.
  • The Relative Strength Index has slipped to 40.71, now below the neutral 50 mark. This shift implies weakening bullish momentum, and suggests sellers are gaining control.
  • ADX at 15.67 reflects a lack of strong trend, and indicates sideways to weak downward bias. The declining nature of the ADX line reinforces that current market moves lack conviction.
  • The MACD has slipped into negative territory, with a bearish crossover below the signal line, and histogram values deepening in red.
  • Price action is nearing the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud, a key dynamic support zone. If Nifty decisively breaks below this cloud, it would indicate a trend reversal and attract further selling pressure.
  • Nifty has broken below its 20-DMA, which has provided reliable support in recent months. This breach adds weight to the short-term bearish view and will likely prompt more unwinding unless the index reclaims this level swiftly.
  • A visible formation of lower highs and lower closes on both daily and weekly timeframes marks a classic sign of trend exhaustion. Unless Nifty surpasses the last swing high convincingly, the index may continue forming lower levels.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty is showing signs of exhaustion after multiple failed attempts to scale above 25,000. The broader trend remains intact but near-term momentum has clearly weakened. As long as Nifty stays below the 25,200 mark, upside remains capped. A decisive breach below 24,500 could intensify the correction toward 24,100–23,900. Indicators like RSI, MACD, and ADX support a cautious-to-bearish stance in the short term.

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