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• The Nifty 50 index started the week with a muted performance but experienced a positive trend until Friday.
• On the last trading day, the index hit record highs of 24854, but then faced intense selling pressure and closed 323 points lower from the life highs. This led to the index giving up all its weekly gains and closing nearly flat, with a relatively lower volume.
• The spike in volatility ahead of the upcoming budget was observed, as the VIX showed an 8% increase on a weekly closing basis, with early signs of further rise.
• Despite a weak market and decreasing momentum breadth in the last two trading sessions, the index still managed to close above the prior day’s low and above the 10-day EMA, indicating strength in the intermediate trend.
• As of Friday’s closing, most broader and sectorial indices remained in a confirmed uptrend, although the positive momentum showed early signs of fading.
• Regarding market breadth, the number of stocks trading above their respective 10 and 20 daily MA dipped below the 50% threshold into the bearish zone, while those above the 10 daily MA reached oversold values.
• However, the more significant trend remained intact with stocks trading above their 50 and 200 daily MA in the bullish zone.
• The momentum breadth indicated a negative trend, accompanied by declining volumes, suggesting weaker stock participation and selective movements. Despite significant sell-offs in price action, the impact was not as severe in the stocks, which is a positive sign.
• As we move into the budget week, some volatility is expected to persist.
• At this point, the swing confidence remains low, meaning that portfolios must take a minimum permissible open risk and prudently remain invested in sectors or themes that continue to show resilience to drawdowns.

• The benchmark index started the trading week with little change and remained within a narrow range of 320 points. The 5-day exponential moving average provided immediate support.
• On Friday, after a period of reduced volatility, the price broke above the weekly trading range, reaching highs of 24592 and closing above the psychological mark of 24500.
• This led to a strong follow-through in price action after surpassing the weekly Bollinger band, marking the 6th week of higher highs. The VIX closed 8.1% higher for the week, but its upside was limited by the shorter-term weekly moving averages.
• The RSI for both daily and higher timeframes continued to indicate overbought conditions without any divergence from the price, demonstrating momentum in the price trend.
• The week concluded with broader indices and major sectors showing a confirmed uptrend, with the media sector displaying strength as it attempted to rally with positive and improving momentum.
• The number of stocks trading above their 10- and 20-day daily moving averages decreased from the overbought levels seen earlier, but those trading above 50 and 200 DMA continued to remain above the 50% threshold, which is a positive sign.
• However, on the momentum breadth front, the market breadth volume remained modestly positive, indicating selective accumulation and movement among weaker stock participation. This emphasizes the importance of cautiously initiating fresh long entries.
• Currently, from a technical standpoint, the index is receiving immediate support at its 5 and 10-day moving averages, which demonstrates momentum in the trend. However, it is important to exercise caution if the index breaches below the average line.
• Nifty is expected to remain in a broad range. On the derivatives front, there was an increase in open interest for the 25000CE strikes, indicating a strong resistance zone. A breach below the support of 24000 could potentially lead to further selling pressure.

• The benchmark index continued its upward movement for the fifth consecutive week and ended the week 313 points higher than the previous week’s closing.
• However, compared to the week before last, the trading range narrowed to 408 points from the previous 824 points, with VIX cooling off by 8%.
• Most indices traded in a confirmed uptrend with positive momentum, with Media being the exception, showing significant improvement amidst the downtrend.
• Stocks with a 10-day moving average (MA) are nearing the overbought territory.
• It will be crucial to take new swing positions prudently as the overall weekly swing temperature is getting slightly warmer.
• However, stocks trading above their 50- and 200-day MAs are well above their 50% threshold, indicating a positive primary trend.
• The momentum market breadth remained strongly positive throughout the week, with an improvement in market breadth volume compared to the previous week. This suggests broader participation and decent accumulation.
• The recent sectorial observation also indicates strength in the market.
• On the technical front, the price action on the weekly outlook showed follow-through after surfacing above the Bollinger upper band, with the RSI trading above 74 levels without showing any divergence against the price.
• Derivative front observations indicate consistent call addition at 24500 strike levels, making those areas strong resistance zones.
• A decisive close above a 24500 will allow the price action to continue its momentum on the upside.
• On the flip side, immediate support comes in the zone of 24100-24000, and sustenance above this zone will allow the index to garner further bullish strength.

• The market index began the week with considerable volatility, but after attracting some buying interest near the 10-day moving average, there was a significant technical rebound in the price action.
• It displayed a strong trend with four consecutive higher high candles, climbing 628 points from Monday’s low.
• On the weekly chart, despite pulling back from the upper Bollinger band, the price action encountered strong and immediate resistance at the channel.
• The week concluded with major sectors confirming an upward trend, showing positive and improving momentum.
• As for market breadth, the number of stocks trading above their 10-day moving average has fallen below the 50% mark, while those trading above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200 DMA averages continue to hold above the 50% level.
• Therefore, while the overall trend is positive, it will be critical to see a recovery in the intermediate trend of the stocks; otherwise, it could lead to a more pronounced weakness.
• The momentum breadth has remained positive since the union election, but a declining trend in market breadth volume indicates selective accumulation.
• The weekly RSI stands above 72 levels and remains mildly overbought.
• The index has surged significantly and is currently trading well above its mean. As a result, we expect the markets to pull back from current levels.
• However, this should maintain the primary uptrend, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the bullish strength during the dips.
• Technically, the support levels near 23650 and 23300 will be the key levels to watch. Sustenance above these supports will allow the index to gain bullish strength.

• The 50 index started the shortened trading week with a 114-point gap-up opening, but the index remained mostly unchanged throughout the week.
• Daily trading sessions showed narrow ranges, with little intraday trend.
• While most broader and sectorial indices continued in an upward trend, many of them started to lose their positive momentum, signaling a need for caution.
• The number of stocks trading above their 10 and 20-day moving averages has entered the overbought zone, those above their 50-day moving averages are now above the 50% bullish threshold, and the stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages are above the 75% threshold.
• This suggests a higher likelihood of profit booking in stocks with an extended intermediate trend.
• Momentum breadth has been positive over the last 2 weeks, indicating moderate but specific accumulation.
• The weekly RSI shows bearish divergence against the price as it is not marking fresh high along with price.
• In terms of price action, weak candles were observed during the week, showing signs of exhaustion
• While the index is trading 1.9% above the mean, Nifty faces strong overhead resistance at 23650-23600. Therefore, any upward movements should be used to protect profits at higher levels. On the contrary, the zone of 23250-23000 is anticipated to act as support.

• The week that went by was in stark contrast to its penultimate week as the 50 index remained in an extremely narrow range. In the week before, the markets reacted with high volatility swaying 2057 points.
• On four out of the five trading sessions in the week gone by, the index came off by over 100 points from its day’s high.
• The VIX index also cooled off by another 24% to 12.82.
• While the price action closed near to record highs, it currently trades at a distance of 2.5% above the mean.
• On the market breadth front, the populace of stocks trading above their 10 and 20 daily MA have entered the overbought territory. While those above 50 and 200 daily MA remain in the bullish zone above their 50% threshold.
• The momentum market breadth remained positive with above average breadth volume citing modest accumulation.
• The weekly RSI continued to show bearish divergence failing to mark fresh highs unlike the price action.
• The Nifty 50, Midcap, and Smallcap indices are anticipated to be trading at stretched levels with positive sloping moving averages, culminating in a further sideways trend that will allow to  garner bullish strength in the intermediate term.
• The overall bias remains positive. A sideway to mildly profit taking bouts will be an opportunity to buy the dip.
• With a truncated week ahead, the markets would adjust to global trade setup on Tuesday. The zone  of 23550-23650 is anticipated to act as immediate resistance zone while the support comes in near 23150-23000. A breach below 22850 would warrant a caution.    

• The markets had an incredible eventful week as they reacted to exit polls and the general election results. Nifty50 gapped higher on Monday cheering the exit polls and scaled to fresh life-highs. It closed the first trading session of the week with a hanging man candle pattern and it succumbed to high volatility and severe selling pressure due to the announcement of election result. A remarkable recovery also followed bolstering a weekly closing with 759 points (3.4%) in green allowing the index to reclaim the ascending channel resistance once again. With this the price action now trades at a distance of nearly 3% away from the mean.
• This also led to the formation of a weekly long legged hanging man candle and their occurrence near the high point have the potential to halt the ongoing uptrend.
• The VIX came off 31.4% on a weekly basis.
• The RSI on weekly timeframe confirmed a bearish divergence after failing to scale to new highs contrary to the price action.
• While most sector’s uptrend remain under pressure, on the market breadth front, stocks trading above 10 daily MA surged into the overbought territory while those over their 20 and 50 daily MA have crossed above their 50% threshold. This also implicates early sign of mild profit-booking. The populace of stocks above their 200 daily MA are well above 65% threshold which is a positive sign. The momentum market breadth remained positive for majority of the week. The market breadth volume saw sharp rise on the exit poll shakeout and continued to remain volatile.
• In anticipation of the index to trend sideways, the zone of 22620-22470 holds a very crucial support zone. Sustenance above this  supporting cushion will allow the index to garner bullish strength and a breach below this zone can invite further selling pressure. 

The benchmark index began the week under selling pressure. With the upper perimeter of the rising channel acting as stiff resistance, the price action was coerced into forming an intermediate top. The formation of a bearish engulfing candle pattern on Monday prompted a respite in the upside, and then the index witnessed follow-through sessions on expanding volume as the selling pressure intensified. The index pared 426 points from its previous weekly close and added 2 distribution days during the week. It ended the week with an inside bar that called a halt to the four-day streak of lower lows after finding immediate support at the 20-day MA, which is currently trading near 22477. The VIX traded at elevated levels continuing its 5 weekly higher closing streak. The market breadth turned frail during the week. The number of stocks trading above the 10, 20, and 50 daily MA dropped below the 50% threshold, indicating a dodgy intermediate trend. The momentum market breadth also softened during the week. However, the market breadth volume witnessed a continuance in expansion, indicating selective accumulation. Technically, the 10 weekly MA and 50 daily MA are trading near 22444 and 22396 making it a crucial support zone. The index is anticipated to invite further selling pressure on a breach below this support zone on a closing basis. In the coming week, we anticipate volatility persisting ahead of the election results and reckon to restrain caution, control leverage, and apply risk management techniques.

This week, the 50 index continued its momentum amidst the pullback rally from the channel’s support. It continued the streak of 10 higher high trading sessions and closed the truncated week in the upper quartile of the trading range after recording fresh life-highs of 23026. Volatility, too, remained at elevated levels. The price action is trading at a distance of 2.3% from the mean on weakening market breadth. The populace of stocks trading above 10 and 20 daily MAs dropped below their 50% threshold, indicating a frail intermediate trend, and the momentum breadth waned on expanding market breadth volume, indicating selective accumulation. The index is anticipated to consolidate as we approach the election result, and drawdowns restricting up to 50 daily MA currently trading near 22342 will act as an opportunity to capitalize on dips.

Sup: 22750-22500-22350

Res: 23050-23180-23380